Zero To Hero Portfolio BUY ALERT: 4 English Special Illustration Rares
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BUY ALERT: 4 English Special Illustration Rares
Status: Buying Now
Conviction Level: High
Target Exit: 12–24 Months
The Asset: Rotom Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames
Card #: 126/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare
Entry Price (PSA 10): $102.84
Current PSA 10 Pop: 3,606 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.62%
Replacement Cost: $575
The Asset: Mega Sharpedo Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames
Card #: 127/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare
Entry Price (PSA 10): $116.50
Current PSA 10 Pop: 5,530 | Gem Mint Rate: 63.20%
Replacement Cost: $569
The Asset: Mega Lopunny Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames
Card #: 128/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare
Entry Price (PSA 10): $98.51
Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,005 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.97%
Replacement Cost: $572
The Asset: Dawn (Trainer) | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames
Card #: 129/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare
Entry Price (PSA 10): $135.30
Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,302 | Gem Mint Rate: 51.52%
Replacement Cost: $699
Background
These purchases are Special Illustration Rares distributed as part of the Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames expansion, a retail product released on November 14, 2025. The set includes one Mega Hyper Rare Gold Card (Mega Charizard) and five Special Illustration Rares : Mega Charizard X ex (125/094), Rotom ex (126/094), Mega Sharpedo ex (127/094), Mega Lopunny ex (128/094), and Dawn Trainer (129/094)
Set Contents: This product features 13 Illustration Rares, 16 Ultra Rares, 5 Special Illustration Rares, and One Mega Hyper Rare. The only investable cards from this set are the Meowth Illustration Rare (Card #106), the Special Illustration Rares, and the Mega Hyper Rare Charizard (Card #130). You can basically ignore everything else from a money-making perspective.
Limited Supply: The pull rates for Special Illustration Rares in this set are 1 in 80 packs. This isn’t bad compared to some of the more difficult sets where the chase cards can run close to 1 in 1,000 packs. Nevertheless, it still means that it would cost approximately $360 worth of packs before you could pull one of the Special Illustration Rares. And given the PSA 10 rate is only 60%, you likely need to pull at least 2 before you have a PSA 10 candidate.
The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)
1. The PSA 10 Prices Are Too Low Relative to Replacement Costs
Based on the pull-rate math, the estimated cost to pull any SIR from Phantasmal Flames is roughly $360 using a $4.50 booster-pack assumption. Then you still have to grade the card. After adjusting for PSA 10 gem rates, the estimated gross PSA 10 replacement costs are:
Rotom ex: ~$576
Mega Sharpedo ex: ~$572
Mega Lopunny ex: ~$572
Dawn: ~$700
The current PSA 10 prices are nowhere close to those numbers. Most are trading around $100–$135. Replacement cost is not a hard floor, but it matters. It tells me that new PSA 10 supply is expensive to create. When the market lets me buy finished PSA 10s for a fraction of that cost, I pay attention.
2. The Market Is Barely Charging for the Cards Themselves
The raw cards are already worth roughly $20–$30 each. The lowest realistic grading costs are roughly $20–$40, and after shipping, supplies, fees, and friction, I’m using about $30 as a practical average. So if I’m buying PSA 10s around $100, the market is barely charging me for the card itself.
Roughly speaking:
raw card value: $20–$30
grading/friction cost: ~$30
PSA 10 market price: ~$100
That leaves only about $40–$50 of premium for already having the card in a PSA 10 holder. For a modern Special Illustration Rare from a major set, that feels too cheap.
3. I Get To Skip The Grading Risk
If I bought these raw, I would still need to inspect condition, submit to PSA, pay grading costs, wait for the cards to come back, and absorb any PSA 9s. That process takes time, especially in a hot market, and the extra fees can add up quickly.
Instead, I’m buying the finished PSA 10s directly. At these prices, I do not need to take the grading risk. The PSA 10 premium is low enough that I would rather own the slab now than try to create it myself.
4. This Is the Type of Setup I Like
These are not hype buys. They are cheap, rare, graded modern cards where the market price looks disconnected from the production math.
The cards are:
Special Illustration Rares
from a major Mega Evolution-era set
already graded PSA 10
priced around $100
trading far below gross replacement cost
overlooked because Charizard is absorbing most of the attention
From years of buying and selling cards, this is the type of setup I want to own. Rare cards can stay cheap for a while, especially during the early supply flood. But years later, the market usually cares that they were hard to pull, hard to grade, and cheap when everyone was focused elsewhere.
The Market Data
Rotom ex #126/094
Entry Price: $102.84 | Buy Range: under $115 | Raw Market Price: ~$19–$20
PSA 10 Pop: 3,721 | Gem Rate: 62.62%
Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$575
Mega Sharpedo ex #127
Entry Price: $116.50 | Buy Range: under $125 | Raw Market Price: ~$24–$25
PSA 10 Pop: 5,574 | Gem Rate: 63.20%
Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$569
Mega Lopunny ex #128
Entry Price: $98.51 | Buy Range: under $120 | Raw Market Price: ~$20–$21
PSA 10 Pop: 4,127 | Gem Rate: 62.97%
Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$572
Dawn #129
Entry Price: $135.30 | Buy Range: under $145 | Raw Market Price: ~$25–$29
PSA 10 Pop: 4,431 | Gem Rate: 51.52%
Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$699
Execution Instructions
Where to Buy: Prioritize reputable marketplaces and sellers: verified eBay sellers, TCGPlayer sellers with strong feedback, PWCC, Goldin, Alt, Collectors, or established card shops with clear return policies.
Verify the PSA Cert: Before buying, look up the PSA certification number on PSA’s website. Confirm that the card name, grade, language, set, and certification details match the listing. Check the PSA cert image, if available, and make sure it matches the actual card being sold—same card, same label, same cert number, and no obvious image mismatch.
Check The Eye Appeal: PSA 10 is a baseline, inspect for centering, sharp corners, clean edges, and overall presentation. Aim for strong centering, ideally close to 50/50. Pass on off-center copies, weak eye appeal, or cards that technically grade PSA 10 but would look mediocre in a premium resale set.
Buying Tip: Confirm you are buying the English version, not the Japanese version. Most chase cards are released in both Japanese and English sets, but values can differ widely. If a price seems too low or too high, it is most likely the wrong version.
Final Thoughts
The buy range outlined above is where I like these cards. Above those levels, I would be more selective. I would stop buying if the PSA 10 prices move materially higher before the market gives me a better reason to pay up.
The whole thesis depends on buying these while they are still cheap relative to raw value, grading cost, and gross replacement cost. At current prices, I like the asymmetry. The downside looks limited because the PSA 10s are already close to raw-card value plus grading cost. The upside is meaningful if the market eventually reprices these as scarce, graded SIRs from an important modern set.
The TCG market is so hot right now that finding cards at a reasonable price is getting tougher, but I pulled the trigger on these for the portfolio.