Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment only and is not financial advice. See full legal disclaimers here.
While all the focus is currently on vintage Pokémon, I wanted to write a post discussing a series of promos that were released in the Sword & Shield era. They are the “Special Delivery” promos: Special Delivery Pikachu, Special Delivery Bidoof, & Special Delivery Charizard). I don’t hear them discussed often, but they are rare and have appreciated quite a bit in value so I thought they warranted a closer look.
1. Special Delivery Pikachu
The Special Delivery Pikachu Promo, SWSH074, was released to celebrate the Pokémon Center online store’s expansion into Canada. There is a common misconception this promo was strictly limited to Canada. In fact, it was available in both the United States and Canada, despite what the descriptions on grading labels say. However, a version of this card was never released in Japan.
The promotion began on November 9, 2020. To qualify to receive a copy of the Pikachu promo, you were required to make a Pokémon Center purchase of $20 or more while supplies lasted. It was a online gift with purchase, not a tournament prize or mail-in redemption.
The promotion was specifically offered “while supplies last”. I could not find a reliable figures for how many cards were printed, distributed, and ultimately redeemed through qualifying purchases. However, the PSA report lists 13,937 graded copies, giving us a useful starting point in determining the cards scarcity.
2. Special Delivery Bidoof
The second in the “Special Delivery” series was the Special Delivery Bidoof, SWSH177. The distribution method for this card was pretty unique. If you were in the United States or Canada, had a online Pokémon Center account, and were subscribed to the newsletter, you received an email to express interest in the promotion. That email went out July 1, 2021. You were required to follow a link in the email before midnight on July 11, 2021, for a chance to receive a promo code. Codes were emailed to select members. You were mailed a copy of the promo by supplying that code in conjunction with a valid purchase from Pokémon Center. All codes were distributed by September 1, 2021, and were valid until January 1, 2022.
Because of how restrictive the process for distributing this promo was, it’s the rarest of the three “Special Delivery” cards. The official FAQ confirmed that not all customers who “expressed interest” received a code. However, it doesn’t disclose the printed run, the selection rate, or the number of codes issued. But looking at the PSA population counts there are only 4,320 graded Bidoofs, compared to approximately 14,000 Pikachus and 30,000 Charizards.
3. Special Delivery Charizard
The third in the series is the Special Delivery Charizard promo, SWSH075. Artwork for this card was revealed in November 2020. It appeared in a players guide highlighting the Sword & Shield Premium Collection (but this promo was not in that particular product). There were documented incidents where this card was accidentally included in some Pokémon Center shipments, well before the public promotion had begun. This contributed to a gap between the time collectors first learned of the existence of the card and being able to obtain it through an official release. The actual promotion began in 2022 and celebrated the launch of the Pokémon Center online store in the United Kingdom.
The Promotion
The registration period for the Charizard promotion opened on July 11, 2022. Customers in the United States, Canada (excluding Quebec) and the United Kingdom were eligible to participate. Participants registered for a one-time promo code and combined it with a qualifying Pokémon Center purchase to redeem the card. The monetary thresholds were $20 USD, $20 CAD, or £20 GBP and codes were valid through January 1, 2023.
The Special Delivery Charizard has a substantially larger PSA population than either Pikachu or Bidoof. Its promotion included the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, whereas the other two were limited to the United States and Canada. There are approximately seven times as many graded Charizards as Bidoofs. The broader distribution may help explain that difference, while Charizard’s popularity may also have encouraged more collectors to obtain and grade the card. Without official distribution figures, however, we cannot determine how much each factor contributed.
Now let’s look at the total graded populations and gem rates.
PSA Population Reports and Gem Percentages
When looking at the numbers, two things stand out immediately:
The PSA 10 population on these is small. Some highly sought after modern cards have tens of thousands of PSA 10 copies. For example, the Moonbreon from Sword and Shield has almost 21,000 copies graded a PSA 10. These promos range from just over 1,000 for the Bidoof to around 4,500 for the Charizard. The limited supply of gem copies is part of the appeal to me.
All three have low gem rates, with the Pikachu the lowest at 10%. While the populations can still grow, additional submissions will not automatically translate into a flood of new PSA 10s. If the gem rates remain similar, a meaningful increase in PSA 10 population would require an enormous number of raw cards to be submitted. I’m not convinced enough gem quality copies remain ungraded to support that kind of growth.
I’ve graded these myself, and I remember these cards did have quality issues. Specifically, I remember poorly cut corners and chipping issues on the backs. Those flaws can easily knock an otherwise perfect card from a 10 to a 9. All three also have holographic surfaces, where scratches and other imperfections present potential grading hurdles.
Let’s go card by card.
Special Delivery Bidoof
This promo has the smallest number of PSA 10 graded copies of the trio. With a graded population of 4,320 overall and just 1,023 in PSA 10, the scarcity of the card should grab people’s attention. Its ~23% Gem Rate is extremely low by modern standards and it was the most difficult to obtain through the restrictive newsletter-selection process.
Special Delivery Pikachu
The Pikachu has the lowest gem rate of the three. Of the 13,937 graded copies, only 1,401 received a PSA 10. That’s a gem rate of 10.05%. That’s the kind of grading rate I normally associate with vintage cards, not a modern promo. What makes that figure particularly noteworthy is that collectors typically submit the strongest candidates. They (generally) aren’t paying to grade copies with obvious flaws. Yet even among cards considered worth grading, nearly nine out of ten fell short. The population can still grow, but given it’s a promotion and has such a low gem rate I expect PSA 10 copies to remain relatively scare over time.
Special Delivery Charizard
The Charizard has the largest population of the three, with 30,693 graded copies. However, only 4,502 copies earned a PSA 10, giving it a gem rate of 14.67%. That’s approximately one in seven. While it’s the least scarce of the special delivery cards, 4,502 PSA 10s is still low for a modern card. For comparison, another popular promo, Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat, has approximately 48,000 PSA 10 copies. That’s more than 10x as many. The Charizard may be the most accessible of the three, but that does not make it abundant by comparison to promos of that scale.
Current Prices
Here is a chart of the current market prices for the “Special Delivery” trio:
As you can see, these are not cheap. These cards have appreciated substantially over the past couple of years, with PSA 10 copies of all three now priced above $2,000. Given the low gem rates, I would prefer to buy an already graded copy than purchase them raw and attempt to grade one myself. PSA grading standards seem to be tougher than ever and I think it would be a long shot to find one in gem condition. The cost of acquiring cards and paying fees can quickly erode any potential savings, while the current grading backlog at PSA means a lengthy wait with no guarantee of securing a 10.
In a previous post, I predicted that modern card prices could cool after PSA closed its Value and Bulk grading tiers. As the chart shows, Special Delivery Bidoof’s PSA 10 price rose sharply into July but has since begun to pull back. If that trend continues, it could present an opportunity to acquire these cards at an attractive price.
Wrapping Up
I wanted to highlight the Special Delivery trio because these low-population promos have many of the qualities I look for in cards that I believe will continue to appreciate over the long term. The appeal is the unique combination of popular characters, holographic finishes, restricted availability, and low gem rates that make PSA 10 copies considerably harder to come by than the raw copies themselves.
These cards were distributed via specific promotions that have long since ended. That means any new PSA 10 supply would need to come from existing copies. If collector interest in these continues to grow while PSA 10s become increasingly locked away in permanent collections, I expect finding gem mint copies to become increasingly difficult.
Being bullish on these cards doesn’t make me a buyer at any price. They have already had substantial appreciation, and I would rather wait for a meaningful pullback than chase those gains. Specifically, I’m looking for an attractive dip in PSA 10 prices as a potential buying opportunity. If I see a price I believe offers a good entry point, I’ll send an alert to paying subscribers of the newsletter with details.