Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment only and is not financial advice. See full legal disclaimers here.
The cleanest story for the month of August is not that the Pokémon TCG market is rolling over, the broad market is still advancing. However, some of the speculative excess is being wrung out of modern sealed product and high-end modern chase cards.
The overall market remains positive. But, momentum is starting to slow down. TCGIndex’s Pokémon Market Value Index currently sits at $1,013,161, with the basket of cards increasing 1.86% over the past 30 days and 7.11% over the past 90 days. The index currently includes 32,272 cards. 56% of the cards in the basket are advancing, Momentum is Neutral (56/100), with moderate volatility.
Compare those returns against July when the 30-day gain was 2.46% and the 90-day gain was 9.79%. So we still have a market that is going up, but the rate of appreciation is starting to cool off.
Key Highlights
TCGIndex recently did a study and found 169 of 191 modern sets were positive over the past 90 days, but vintage is outperforming modern. Vintage sets averaged a +20.2% increase, mid-era +17.0%, and modern +9.6%. This indicates a “rotation” into older cards as opposed to a modern market crash.
I’m actually excited at the prospect of a focus shifting toward vintage cards. The run-up in modern Pokémon has been so extreme over the last 12 months, that it’s been difficult to find opportunities to get into great cards because the price isn’t right. A couple of years ago I was buying Alternate Arts from Evolving Skies between $100 and $300 and spending $20 to grade them. Now many of those cards sell for $1,000-$4,000 in a PSA 10. Many modern Japanese promos I own have jumped 10x in value. A Special Illustration Rare in a new set is released and the PSA 10 is going for $4k. That makes it difficult to buy in size. If you invest in a card like the Charizard from Phantasmal Flames or the Pikachu from Ascended Heros, you’r spending $3,000-$4,000. I can see those cards dropping 50% if the market cools. It’s caused me to shy away from chasing big modern cards for the time being.
Sealed Product Weakness?
One of the main stories of the month is apparent weakness in the prices of sealed product. According to TCGPlayer, tracked sales show booster boxes were around $600 in late June, $470 at the start of August, and $400 by the end of the month. That’s a 33% drop from the late June level. The standard Destined Rivals ETB dropped even more. It went from $170 in mid-July to $110 by the end of August. That’s a decline of -35% over that period. TCGPlayer attributed the weakness to the large wave of Destined Rivals ETB reprints.
The weakness wasn’t limited to Destined Rivals. Journey Together booster boxes were selling at $315 on August 1, but had dropped to $250 by August 30th. A roughly -20% decline on the month. It’s not isolated to a single reprint event. We might be seeing the early signs of some froth coming out of the sealed product market that had built up over the Scarlet & Violet era as prices continue to go higher and higher.
The price of Pitch Black is another sign buyers are not as willing to assign a huge premium to new products (that will probably change with the 30th anniversary). Prices for Pitch Black booster boxes have fallen from $193 at the beginning of August to $179. The MSRP on these boxes was $160, so there isn’t much of a premium. Its nowhere near the difference we were seeing in prices between retail and secondary markets for sealed product earlier in the year.
At the same time, some sealed product is holding up reasonably well. Prismatic Evolutions ETBs were basically flat on the month at $160 or so. Surging Sparks booster boxes bounced around $290-$310 in the month of August, basically unchanged. That’s telling me the selloff is selective. Aggressive reprints, fresh supply, and unpopular sets seem to be the main drivers.
Early 30th Celebration Pull Rates & Prices
The 30th Celebration products hit retailers on September 16 and we’re already starting to see early pull rates from pack openings. The pull rates appear much more generous than what we’ve seen in standard sets. This is expected of an anniversary release. That matters when you are evaluating singles. There are going to be far more copies of the chase cards in this set than there are for comparable chase cards from sets like Prismatic Evolutions or Ascended Heros.
Here are the early pull rates:
Holo Pikachu (30-artist subset) — 1 in Every Pack (100%)
Illustration Rare — 1 in 6 Packs
Classic Reprint — 1 in 10 Packs
Special Illustration Rare — 1 in 19 Packs
FUR Rare — 1 in 100 Packs
RGB Rate — 1 in 4,083 Packs
Here is some early prices of the top individual cards from the 30th Celebration release
Mew Ex #158/128 — $180
Mewtwo Ex #157/128 — $130
Pikachu Ex (Night) #150/128 — $140
Pikachu Ex (Day) #149/128 — $100
Charizard #4/102— $169
Mewtwo Ex #151/128 — $100
Mew Ex #152/128 — $180
Gengar #154/128 — $140
RGBs are the toughest pulls
The RGB rares are the most expensive cards in the set, due to the rarity I assume. They have pull rates of approximately 1 in 4,000 packs. The prices of these are all over the place. I’m seeing them sell anywhere from $3,000 to $5,000.
My Read on the Market
The market still looks strong. Even though the sealed product market is showing some weakness, Target was sold out of 30th Celebration products on the first day.
Early resales on secondary markets have ETBs going for over $150. I think the biggest risks right now are sellers sitting on too much sealed product in sets that aren’t in high demand (Pitch Black) or are suffering from large reprints (Destined Rivals). I think if reselling stops being as profitable and sellers can’t get cards graded for long periods of time because of the backlog at PSA, it could weigh down the market. But that could also provide opportunities to get into cards that have frankly risen too high in price too fast. Overall, Pokémon cards will continue to be a money making endeavor as long as you make sure to hold highly graded cards at the right prices.
