This set is the first expansion in the Mega Evolution series and was released on September 26th, 2025. It’s been almost a full year since its release. In the future I will write these about 6 months after a set becomes available, but this gives us plenty of data to work from. This set includes the English prints of cards primarily from the Japanese expansions Mega Brave and Mega Symphonia (reviews coming soon). Here is a quick snapshot of the set:

The set breaks down like this. The set is 188 cards, 132 in the numbered set and 56 Secret Rares. The Secret Rare breakdown is as follows

• 22 Illustration Rare

• 22 Ultra Rare

• 10 Special Illustration Rare

• 2 Mega Hyper Rare

Browse This Set: View All 188 Mega Evolution Cards Here

Introduction of Mega Hyper Rare

Pokémon introduced a new rarity type with the release of this expansion, the “Mega Hyper Rare”. Gold cards are not new. Sword & Shield featured gold “Secret Rares”, while Scarlet & Violet renamed the top gold rarity “Hyper Rare”. Despite sitting at the top of the rarity ladder, these cards generally didn’t attract the same collector demand as Sword & Shield alternate arts or Scarlet & Violet Special Illustration Rares. They were full-art cards with gold backgrounds and borders. Despite having pull rates in line with the Special Illustration Rare inserts, gold “Hyper Rares” were not the most desirable cards in those sets. Most of the collector demand was concentrated on the Special Illustration Rares or Alternative Arts. It’s counterintuitive because while they had the highest rarity, they were worth considerably less than the most desirable SIR inserts. I didn’t go heavy into buying these in the past because they simply didn’t perform as well on an ROI basis.

The new Mega Hyper Rare retain the all-gold concept of their predecessors, but differ in that they have a gold-etched holographic design and alternate artwork (where Hyper Rares were gold treatments of the Pokémon ex or Trainer cards so the artwork wasn’t unique). They also have their own rarity symbol. Mega Evolution has two of these MHRs - Mega Gardevoir ex and Mega Lucario ex. Pokémon appears to be repositioning these as “true” chase cards instead of a premium treatment of a card. These are extremely difficult to pull. For Mega Evolution, it’s 1 in 35 booster boxes. But it remains to be seen if these will perform better than the gold cards from previous eras.

Top Cards By Price

Below are the top 10 cards ranked by current market price. You can see from the table that the list is dominated by the Special Illustration Rares and the Mega Hyper Rares we just discussed. When cards first hit the market, there is a “release premium” for the top cards. We are nearly a year from that release, and that premium has largely dissipated from the market. Every single card in the top ten is below its release price, with 4 of them down over 60%. This is why I stress waiting for this premium to disappear. You cannot take an immediate 60% haircut in the price you paid and expect to make money. It ties your capital up far too long waiting for the price to recover, when your goal should be turning over cards for profit.

Mega Latias, the Mega Hyper Rares, and Lillie’s Determination took the sharpest hits. This isn’t a surprise to me. In my experience trainers often have some of the steepest post release drawdowns and as I discussed I’m still skeptical of the premium the gold rares are selling for. Mega Latias has declined the most which is a bit of a surprise since Latias has a real following and is featured in one of the most expensive and sought after cards from the Sun & Moon era.

Pull Rates

The Mega Evolution pull rates are in line with what we saw during the Scarlet & Violet era until we get to the very top. Illustration Rares and Ultra Rares are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 packs respectively, while the Special Illustration Rares are 1 in 101 packs. That isn’t particularly high for modern Pokémon. The real outliers are the Mega Hyper Rares. TCGPlayer estimates pulling a copy once in every 1,260 packs. That means to pull a specific MHR, you’re looking at ripping 2,520 packs. That amounts to 35 booster boxes for any MHR and 70 booster boxes for a specific one (on average). At $6/pack, that’s $7,560 in pack purchases to pull one.

The extreme rarity of the “Mega Hyper Rare” Lucario and Gardevoir didn’t protect them from a steep drop in price since they were first released. The Mega Lucario fell from $605 to $231 and Mega Gardevoir went from $562 to $198. Even though they are exceptionally difficult pulls, they are both down over 60% since September of 2025. An important lesson in Pokémon TCG, the pull rates will tell you something about the long term supply and graded populations, but they don’t always tell you if the card has the correct value in the market.

PSA Population & Gem Rates

Let’s take a look at the Pop Report and Gem Rates for the top cards in the set. The first thing that sticks out is the ridiculously low gem rates for the Mega Hyper Rares. The Mega Lucario is only assigned a PSA 10 grade 27% of the time and the Mega Gardevoir only 22.4% of the time.

The GEM rates for the Mega Hyper Rares are low, real low. I tried to research what the common issues were to cause the grading to be so difficult. The gold etching on these cards is new. Was it problems with the gold or something else like centering or cut quality? English cards are notorious for quality control issues compared to their Japanese counterparts which typically gem at a very high rate.

The gold treatment itself seems like it could be an issue. I used the Japanese versions as a control. Japanese cards typically don’t have the centering and corner issues that often occur in English printed cards. Their quality control in Japan is second to none.

However, the same pattern does exist in the Japanese sets, although it’s not as severe. The Mega Brave Mega Ultra Rares currently have a gem rate of 53% compared to 78% for the set overall. For Mega Symphonia, it’s 46% for the Mega Ultra Rares vs. 82% for the set. The English printed Mega Hyper Rares are gemming at roughly half the rate of their Japanese counterparts. This suggests that gold-etching itself creates grading difficulties, while the typical English production quality compounds the problem.

From what I can gather, there are centering issues on the English prints. Collector posts repeatedly show images of Lucario and Gardevoir MHRs with visibly poor centering, along with reports of surface imperfections and print lines.

Where Mega Evolution Stands Now

It’s been almost a year since the set was released and we know considerably more about it today than when it first hit the shelves. The initial hype premium has largely disappeared and all of the current Top 10 cards are trading considerably below their early prices. The Mega Hyper Rares are exceptionally difficult to pull and the PSA pop reports show they are also exceptionally difficult to grade.

The most important point I can emphasize is that scarcity and value are not the same thing. Mega Lucario and Mega Gardevoir are a one in 1,260 pack pull, yet the raw value of the cards has dropped by more than 60%. That’s why I stress waiting. Waiting gives you information you don’t have when a set first launches. How much of the initial hype survived? How big did the population grow? Does a card’s rarity translate into real value appreciation?

In my experience, base sets in modern Pokémon eras haven’t typically performed well from a price appreciation standpoint. The biggest sets tend to be the ones with an unusually strong chase card lineup, a major theme, or Pokémon characters that attract the highest collector demand. Mega Evolution doesn’t really have that advantage. Lucario, Gardevoir and Latias all have legitimate collector followings, but the set is missing most of the hobby's biggest demand drivers. There is no Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo, or Eevee to drive the set’s popularity. That doesn’t mean Mega Evolution is a bad set, I like some of the chase cards. But I’m not sure if the rarity alone will make these cards major long-term winners.

That’s it for Part 1. Part 2 of this article for paid subscribers will be dropping later this week. I’ll look at replacement cost calculations, whether it makes sense to grade or buy, liquidity, current entry points, and finally rank the PSA 10s I’m actually putting money into.

The Lead: Pokémon Celebratory Fanfare Promo Reveal

Pokémon revealed the 2026 celebratory fanfare promo, making it the sixth version of the annual promotional card awarded to competitive players who earn enough Championship Points during the season. The artwork traditionally features Pikachu alongside other Pokémon that were important in that year’s competitive scene.

The series began in 2021 and for most of its history the Japanese versions have been the ones collectors and investors chased. In 2025, Pokémon expanded outside of Asia through the Ace Trainer rewards program. 2026 is only the second year Pokémon distributed an English version of the card.

Looking at the pop reports, PSA 10 populations on the Celebratory Fanfare promos are remarkably small, even compared with difficult to pull Special Illustration Rares.

The PSA 10 pop count for each year is approximately:

• 2021: 884

• 2022: 2,241

• 2023: 685

• 2024: 994

What I like about these promos is that they aren’t a card Pokémon can endlessly reprint or push into the market through booster packs or additional product releases. To receive one, you actually had to qualify as a competitive player. That restriction has led to an unusually small population of PSA 10s, yet they can be surprisingly affordable when/if you can find them on the secondary market.

Quick Hits

First Partner Series 3 Launches

I’ve written about the First Partner series in previous posts. The final nine promos released on August 7 at an MSRP of $14.99. Along with the release came videos on social media of people fighting over them at Target and other retailers.

Brief commercial break: if fighting over $15 boxes at Target so you can make a few dollars per box after platform fees isn’t your idea of investing, become a paid subscriber. It’s much easier to make money than this.

On a per box basis, Series 3 is cheaper than the previous series. Looks like you can pick them up for between $25-$35 on the secondary market. My guess is the PSA pause is a major reason. There simply isn’t as much demand when you can’t get the cards graded. With “Value” tiers paused, there’s less incentive for investors and collectors to buy boxes specifically to grade the promos. I’m not sure when I’ll be a buyer here. I need more clarity around PSA Value-tier pricing and turnaround times before buying a bunch of cards that would just sit around waiting to be graded.

Pokémon Continues to Reveal The 30th Celebration Set

We got our first look at the Day & Night Pikachu Special Illustration Rare pair. These will be available in 30th Celebration booster packs and ETB’s beginning September 16th. We don’t know the pull rates yet, but regardless of the difficulty, this pair will be extremely popular with collectors.

30th Celebration booster packs also contain a special group of 30 different Pikachu cards, each illustration done by a different artist. One will come in every booster pack, and each features a fireworks foil layer printed across the card. So far, 19 of the 30 cards from the Japanese set and 4 of the cards from the English set have been revealed.

Because one of the 30 inserts is guaranteed in every booster pack, the total raw population could reach tens of millions of cards. That volume, combined with the pause in PSA grading makes me hesitant to accumulate too aggressively. I’m going to let the market dictate when and how to invest in these. Individually, they may not become especially valuable, but a complete PSA 10 set could command a meaningful premium.

Storm Emeralda Card Watch

There is now some early price data on Storm Emeralda and as expected, the set is dominated by Rayquaza. Collector interest in this expansion is massively concentrated in the Rayquaza Gold and the Special Art Rare.

The Top Cards By Price:

• Mega Rayquaza Gold: $1,127.45

• Mega Rayquaza ex Special Art Rare: $632.48

• Raikou ex Special Art Rare: $75.00

• Mega Rayquaza ex Super Rare: $50.00

• Zinnia’s Trust Special Art Rare: $35.75

The two top Rayquaza cards are in a completely different universe compared to the rest of the set. The Gold is 15x the price of Raikou (who is a popular character), while the Special Art Rare is more than 8x.

The English versions of the cards are rumored to be released in the Delta Reign expansion when it releases in November. I expect we’ll see a similar concentration of value, with the Rayquaza chase cards commanding a premium over everything else in the set.

Coming Soon

Planning for the complete 30th Celebration buying guide - Every product, cost-per-pack comparisons and which promos may justify paying up for.

Market Timing For Buying Graded Cards - With grading paused, I’ll explain my framework for buying already graded cards (hint: it’s not the first copies to hit the market).

A Mega Evolution set and buying review - The top cards, price charts and whether we are at reasonable entry points.

In a recent weekly update, I mentioned an article reporting that McDonald’s had teased another Pikachu collaboration promo coming in 2026. This article also referenced a similar promotion that ran in 2025. Not knowing much about how past McDonald’s collaborations perform in the market, I decided to dig into the 2025 release. I found a much crazier story than I expected, even by Pokémon standards.

The Original Promotion

In August 2025, McDonald’s Japan announced a Pokémon themed “Happy Set” promotion set to begin on August 8. Each “Happy Set” included one of nine Pokémon toys and for three days (August 9, 10, and 11) customers would also receive a two-card Pokémon pack with each qualifying purchase.

Each pack contained one guaranteed Pikachu promo & one randomly selected card featuring Sprigatito, Fuecoco, Quaxly, Ralts or Riolu

The featured Pikachu card, numbered 020/M-P and illustrated by Yuu Nishida, shows Pikachu with a tray of food and a McDonald’s logo stamped on the right side of the card (see image above). The most important detail was that Pikachu was not randomly inserted. Every promotional pack contained one.

McDonald’s asked customers to purchase no more than five “Happy Sets” during the card distribution period. The moment they had to say that, you knew things weren’t going to end well. The company also discouraged purchases made for resale and asked customers not to order more food than they could eat. Needless to say, those precautions weren’t enough. The promotion was immediately overwhelmed.

Collectors and resellers lined up outside restaurants, and participating locations quickly exhausted their supply. Japanese media reported the promotional cards had effectively sold out on the first day. Photos circulated of uneaten food discarded near McDonald’s locations, apparently left by customers who were primarily interested in the cards. McDonald’s later apologized and said it would consider stronger restrictions for future promotions. The toy promotion continued, but the card giveaway ended as soon as it began.

The Card Initially Appeared Scarce

During the launch, the card genuinely appeared scarce. Scheduled for only three days, the promotion was limited to Japan and the stores ran out almost immediately. International collectors had to purchase the card through Japanese resellers, making people believe it was difficult to obtain. All of these factors combined to create the appearance of scarcity.

But several details hinted that the eventual supply could be overwhelmingly large:

1. The cards were distributed nationwide in Japan

2. Every pack contained a guaranteed copy of the Pikachu

3. Customers could purchase up to 5 Happy Sets each

4. The card was inexpensive enough to acquire in quantity

The chaotic release restricted access to the card. It was initially difficult to obtain because demand overwhelmed the promotion, not because a small number of copies existed.

Cards Flooded into PSA

After the promotion had ended, enormous quantities of the Pikachu promo were submitted for grading. Professional grading takes time. This process creates a lag between a card’s release and when meaningful numbers of PSA 10 copies begin reaching the secondary market. That means initial PSA 10 copies and prices can dramatically overstate both the end-state value and rarity of a card. This McDonald’s promo is one of the most extreme examples of this I’ve seen.

By the beginning of 2026, roughly six months after the promotion began, PSA reported it had graded over 220,000 copies of the card. That makes it the most graded Pokémon card of the 2020s, more than twice as many PSA submissions as the Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat promo which ranks second at roughly 115,000 graded copies.

And the population has continued to climb. The latest pop report shows 323,162 total submissions, with an astonishing 282,967 copies receiving a GEM MINT 10. Those numbers don’t include raw copies and cards graded by CGC or Beckett. I can’t remember ever seeing a modern Pokémon card with a graded population that large. To put it in perspective examining two popular modern cards, the Umbreon VMAX from Evolving skies and the Charizard EX from 151 from Scarlet & Violet, have 21,378 PSA 10s and 28,316 PSA 10s respectively. The McDonald’s Pikachu has nearly 10 times as many PSA 10s as either one of them.

What Happened To The Price

The rumor is that early card and sealed packs commanded huge premiums ( into the thousands ) immediately after the promotion. It’s difficult to know exactly where everything traded because I don’t have visibility into all Japanese secondary market platforms or what local card shops were charging at the time. But here is what I was able to find.

There were BGS Black Label copies clearing the market for more than $5,000, which is pretty crazy for a card that would eventually have more than 250,000 PSA 10s. Those sales appear to have been fairly rare. Looking at the broader historical price data, PSA 10 copies seem to have topped out around $300.

As more cards moved through grading, the population exploded causing prices to fall substantially. You can see from the graph above, by July 2026 recent PSA 10 sales where landing around $80-$100, while PSA 9 sales were around $40-$50. Whats interesting is that even with nearly 283,000 PSA 10 copies, it continues to sell for close to $100. That reflects the strength of demand for Pikachu promotional cards, the appeal of the artwork, and the memorable story surrounding the event.

What You Can Learn From It

1. Just because a promotional card sells out, it doesn’t mean it’s rare

   The Pikachu promotion sold out because the demand exceeded the inventory available at individual McDonald’s locations. That tells us something important: the card had extremely strong demand. I always try to verify sufficient demand before I invest in a card. What it doesn’t tell us is how many cards were ultimately printed. A card can sell out and still have hundreds of thousands or even millions of copies in circulation.

2. Guaranteed cards can produce enormous populations

   With modern Pokemon sets, the rarest chase cards can be extraordinarily difficult to pull. It’s not uncommon for Special Illustration Rares (or similar rare cards) to have pull rates approaching 1 in 1,000 packs or worse. For example, estimates for the Tree Pikachu from Ascended Heroes put the pull rate at roughly 1 in 1,533 packs. That puts a cap on how many copies can enter the marketplace. Even if millions of packs are opened, only a small percentage will contain the chase card. The McDonalds Pikachu has the opposite distribution model.

3. The Gem Rate Matters

   The number of raw copies is only part of the supply equation. For many modern cards, a significant portion of the premium collector market is concentrated in Gem Mint copies. That means the percentage of cards capable of receiving a PSA 10 can have a major effect on the supply that matters most at the high end of the market. If a card has centering problems, print defects, edge wear, poor cutting, or other manufacturing issues (which can be common), a low gem rate can create an additional layer of scarcity even when the raw card itself is relatively common. The McDonald’s Pikachu had no such problem.

   Of the copies submitted to PSA, approximately 87.5% have received a GEM MINT 10. That is an extraordinarily high gem rate, and when you combine it with the massive number of raw copies entering the grading pipeline, the PSA 10 population explodes.

   To drive the point home, here are the two supply variables that you really care about:

   • How many raw copies exist

   • What percentage of those copies can achieve a Gem Mint grade

   A card with a huge raw population can still have relatively few PSA 10s if the gem rate is low. The McDonald’s Pikachu had both a huge raw supply and an extremely high gem rate. That is the worst possible combination if you are looking for price appreciation.

4. A high population count doesn’t automatically make the card worthless

   You would think with a population count of PSA 10’s nearing 300,000, the card would basically be worthless. But its not. It still sells for almost $100. Since grading is currently at $80/card, I tried to win one for less than $80 in an auction (basically getting the card for free) but was unsuccessful. Most of the listings I bid on went for over $100. My guess is because it’s now attached to a memorable event. It’s promotion created lines, sellouts, resale controversy, pictures of wasted food, and the largest grading waves the hobby has even seen. That makes the card culturally interesting and collectible.

Final Thoughts

Do I think this card is a good investment for price appreciation ? Probably not.

Will I end up adding it to my personal collection? Unfortunately, yes.

There is most likely a cap on how much appreciation this card can experience, just from the sheer number of graded copies. And there is no rush to get one. With a population of that size, there will always be copies available on the secondary markets.. But if you are in it for the love of the game like me, you’ll end up buying a copy simply because it’s a Japanese Pikachu promo with an interesting story behind it. I suspect many collectors will feel the same.

Take notice those there are two different decisions. As a Pokemon enthusiast, I’ll happily pay $100 that was part of a cultural event. Thats was a personal collection is for. But the ZeroToHero portfolio exists to make money. A card with 283,000 PSA 10s and a fully diluted supply already priced in doesn’t get a spot. If it does surprise to the upside, I’ll take that into account when deciding how to invest in similar collaborations in the future.

If there is one lesson I want to emphasize from this situation it’s this: Don’t rush to buy a raw or graded PSA 10 of a popular card until you have some visibility into the number of copies and gem mint rate. Those two numbers make it possible to calculate some basic replacement costs. That replacement cost helps you put an economic floor under the price.

TCGIndex’s Pokémon Market Value Index currently stands at $970,348, with the cards it tracks gaining 2.46% over the past 30 days and 9.79% over the past 90 days. The index currently includes 32,146 cards.

For comparison, the S&P 500 was basically flat for the month (+0.09%), although it remains up 9.20% on a total-return basis for the year. Pokémon cards continued moving higher during a month when U.S. equities were essentially flat.

Key Highlights

The market continues to move higher, but the pace has slowed from what we saw earlier in the year. That is not necessarily a bad thing.

A slower advance supported by more than half the cards in the index is healthier than a vertical move driven by a handful of speculative chase cards. The market is still constructive, but it is no longer a situation where you can buy almost anything and expect an immediate return. The easy money has largely been made. Card selection and entry price matter more now.

PSA Grading Pause

At the beginning of June PSA ceased accepting new submissions in all lower cost tiers: Bulk, Value, Value Plus and Value Max. They made this decision after a backlog that grew to 10 million cards. Existing orders are still being processed, but PSA has tied the return of “value” tiers to a meaningful reduction of the backlog rather than committing to a firm reopening date. PSA being forced to pause lower-cost submissions is one of the clearest signs that the Pokémon market may be getting overheated. While it doesn’t guarantee a market downturn, a similar backlog developed near the peak of the previous cycle. With that in mind, I want to revisit what happened then and what it could mean in 2026.

What happened during the previous pause

On March 30,2021, PSA suspended Value, Regular, and Express submissions after it had received more cards in three days than it had in the previous three months. They intended on restoring all service levels by the July of 2021, but that timeline proved far too optimistic. Value submissions did not return until June 2022, 14 months after they were paused. The shutdown arrived near the peak of the pandemic-era card boom. That doesn’t mean the PSA decision caused the crash, but it was evidence how speculative the TCG market had become.

Prices weakened over the following months. Without the ability to quickly grade and flip, many speculators lost interest and moved elsewhere. It also created a delayed supply problem. As turnaround times stretched, fewer graded cards were reaching the market. This created the impression some cards were scarcer than they actually were temporarily pushing prices higher. Once the backlog began to clear, millions of delayed submissions returned to sellers and added significant supply to an already cooling market. This put downward pressure on prices, especially modern cards. The market eventually recovered, but anyone who bought expensive cards near the peak had to hold them for years or sell at a loss.

Could the Market Correct Again?

The same thing could happen again, yes. PSA initially estimated that it could reduce the backlog to its reopening target within four months, but that timeline has already been extended and the backlog is moving in the wrong direction. PSA has significantly more grading capacity than it did in 2021, so another 14 month closure isn’t inevitable. Still, investors should not assume “temporary” means brief.

In the short term, the pause may cause a temporary increase in PSA 10 prices by restricting the flow of newly graded cards. The longer term risk is that the backlog eventually returns to the market as a large wave of pent-up supply. I am not predicting another crash, but I am becoming much more selective about what I buy and I am avoiding modern cards whose prices depend on a temporary shortage today lasting indefinitely.

What I’m Seeing

1. Japanese Promos

Several of the strongest Japanese Promos appear to be plateauing after an enormous run-up.

Mario Pikachu and Scream Pikachu have both flattened near recent highs, while Detective Pikachu pulled back a slightly from it’s peak and has stabilized. It doesn’t necessarily mean the category is entering a decline, but it does suggest the easy upside may already be behind many of these cards for now.

I still love Japanese promo cards, especially ones that contain Pikachu, but many high-end promos have had a 10x type move. I would be cautious about chasing high dollar cards in this category from here and would wait for a meaningful pullback or look for promos that have not repriced like this. However, it is a good illustration of the type of returns possible by owning the right cards.

2. Demand for New Products Remains Strong

Demand for new sealed product is still running hot. The First Partner Promo releases sold out quickly, with lines out the door at Target. And I was twice unable to buy 30th Celebration products from Pokémon Center after waiting in the queue for hours. That level of demand is clearly still bullish. Although it increases the risk of overpaying once they reach the secondary market.

3. PSA 10 Supply will Start to Look Tighter than it Really is

The Value-tier pause will assuredly support current prices for some time. But much of the missing supply is delayed ( rather than eliminated ) and will hit the market at some point in the future.

My Read on the Market

My view has not changed substantially. The market remains healthy, but it is no longer cheap enough to justify buying indiscriminately. I’m still comfortable buying cards with strong collector demand and limited replacement supply, especially where I can acquire them below the combined cost of pulling and grading them. I’m seeing Special Illustration Rares trade below the current cost to grade ($80) across the market, and I plan to take advantage of those opportunities. At the same time, I’m avoiding popular cards that have had massive run-ups. Buyers are increasingly chasing performance, and I have no interest being the last one left holding the bag on a $10,000-$30,000 card.

Zero To Hero Portfolio

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The biggest Pokémon TCG story this week was the reveal of all 76 main-set cards from Storm Emeralda, Japan’s next expansion. The set releases July 31, is led by Mega Rayquaza ex and is expected to feed into the English Delta Reign set in November.

The most unusual cards are three new paired Stadiums: Legendary Ocean Trench, Legendary Summit and Legendary Lava Lake. Stadiums are Trainer cards that remain in play and affect both players until another Stadium replaces them.

Each of these Stadiums is divided across two separate cards. You must have both halves in your hand and play them together, at which point they function as one Stadium. Placed side by side, the artwork connects to form one large landscape scene.

This is the first time Pokémon has used the two-card mechanic for Stadiums. I am not sure what collector demand will look like for these, particularly since grading and displaying the complete artwork presents an obvious challenge. I will get into that when I review the full set.

For now, I am waiting to see the complete secret-rare lineup, particularly Mega Rayquaza. That card will probably determine the ceiling for the entire set.

Quick Hits

Products & Releases

Pokémon showcased the full Pitch Black product lineup. My view has not changed. This looks more like a set where I let other people open the packs and buy the best singles.

The three most valuable raw cards at launch, in order, are:

1. Mega Darkrai ex (#116/84)

2. Mega Darkrai ex - Gold (#120/84)

3. Morpeko ex (#117/84)

There is no reason to chase these now while supply is still entering the market.

Market & Distribution

Japan’s official Pokémon Card Stores will begin using facial recognition. The system is intended to stop customers from entering multiple times or obtaining more than one purchase ticket.

This is not a direct investing signal, but it shows how difficult retail distribution remains in Japan. Pokémon is moving beyond purchase limits and lotteries to technology specifically designed to stop repeat buyers and scalpers. If it works, it may reduce some of the immediate resale premium created by organized buyers. It does not mean more product is being printed.

This is why I don’t like business models that depend on buying products at retail and immediately flipping them for a profit. As we discussed in the First Partner promo review, retailers will keep finding new ways to restrict that behavior.

Card Watch

Growlithe and Groudon received Illustration Rares in Storm Emeralda. Growlithe is a popular Pokémon that does not receive as many major illustration cards as some comparable characters. I expect the card to have steady collector demand.

Groudon has the higher ceiling. I’ll be comparing its early pricing with the Japanese and English versions of the Raging Surf and Paradox Rift Groudon Illustration Rare. The main thing I’m waiting for is the Mega Rayquaza chase card. The Rayquaza VMAX from Evolving Skies is still one of the best returns on investment I’ve ever had on a single card.

Watching Next Week

The remaining Storm Emeralda secret rares - I’ll be interested to see the Mega Rayquaza rare. It’s a popular character and assuming the artwork is good, generally makes an excellent investment candidate.

The Japanese launch on July 31 - I will be watching booster-box pricing, pull rates and the first real sales of the top cards.

The second week of Pitch Black pricing - The question is not which cards started highest. It is which cards continue finding buyers as more supply reaches the market and prices start to solidify.

Coming Soon

Planning for the complete 30th Celebration buying guide - Every product, cost-per-pack comparisons and which promos may justify paying up for.

Market Timing For Buying Graded Cards - With grading paused, I’ll explain my framework for buying already graded cards (hint: it’s not the first copies to hit the market).

A Mega Evolution set and buying review - The top cards, price charts and whether we are at reasonable entry points.

The Wild Story of the 2025 McDonald’s Pikachu Promo - Pokémon is teasing another McDonald’s promo in 2026, so I went back and researched what happened with the 2025 release. If this year is anything like last year, it could get wild.

That’s the week. Even with PSA’s grading pause, I’ll continue highlighting graded cards that look undervalued or attractive as long-term holds. New buy alerts and a Zero to Hero portfolio update are coming soon for paid subscribers.

What happened

First, a housekeeping note: yes, this news is almost eight weeks old, and yes, I’m just now covering it. I didn’t have a PSA submission go out in June, so the pause never crossed my screen until I went to check current tier pricing when prepping the first partner promos for grading.

On May 28, PSA announced that it was pausing all four Value service tiers: Value Bulk, Value, Value Plus, and Value Max effective June 2 at 3:00 p.m. PT. PSA said the surge followed its May 14 announcement of a $200 million infrastructure investment and revised turnaround-time ranges. Submissions jumped approximately 20%, adding another 1.6 million cards and pushing its active backlog toward 10 million.

Then it got worse. The pause announcement sparked a last-minute rush to beat the deadline, pushing the active queue to nearly 14 million cards by June 9. PSA reported that the backlog had fallen to approximately 12 million by June 30 and 11 million as of its July 14 update.

PSA’s stated target is to reduce the backlog to roughly 5 million cards before responsibly reopening the paused tiers. Its original estimate was up to four months, but after the deadline rush, it revised that projection to five to six months. That currently points toward a late-2026 reopening, although slower-than-expected progress or another submission surge could push it into 2027.

The practical effect is that the cheapest standard tier available directly through PSA right now is Regular at $79.99 per card. That is approximately more than three times the $24.99 Value Bulk price available immediately before the pause. Express, Super Express, Walk-Through, and the higher Premium tiers remain open above it.

The higher price is not the only problem. PSA also temporarily stretched Regular’s estimated turnaround time from 25 business days to 40–50 business days. And for collectors who made the Value cutoff, the wait may be considerably longer than the posted turnaround suggests. PSA warned that deadline-rush Value and Value Bulk packages could take six to eight weeks just to be opened and entered into the grading system, before the official turnaround clock even begins.

PSA did offer one concession. Collectors Club memberships that were active on May 14 and remain active will be extended at no charge for the duration of the Value Bulk pause.

Is this a repeat of 2021?

If your first thought was, “This is COVID all over again,” you’re not wrong to see the resemblance. On March 30, 2021, PSA suspended nearly all of its lower- and mid-priced card-grading services under record submission volume. The shutdown landed at or near the peak of the pandemic-era card boom, although the exact top varied by category. Many collectors who submitted through the cheapest tiers then waited well into late 2021 or 2022 to receive their cards, by which point much of the market was already in a serious drawdown.

That does not prove that every PSA backlog marks a market top. We only have one truly comparable modern episode, and PSA now has far more grading capacity than it did in 2021. But the relationship makes structural sense. Extreme submission volume can indicate maximum participation, maximum confidence, and maximum marginal grading: people paying to slab increasingly ordinary cards because the economics still appear to work at elevated prices. So take the signal seriously. A grading backlog is partly an operational problem, but it can also be evidence that speculative activity has moved unusually far down the quality curve.

This is one reason I am being cautious with the Zero to Hero portfolio. I do not want to chase expensive cards simply because they have already gone up or because the broader market feels strong. I would rather look for rare, genuinely desirable cards selling below their practical replacement cost, the amount it would reasonably take to pull, grade, or otherwise replace the same card in the same condition.

Replacement cost is not a guaranteed price floor. In a serious downturn, cards can trade below the cost of producing them, especially if sellers need liquidity or demand disappears. But buying below replacement cost gives us a meaningful margin of safety. It makes it harder for new supply to enter profitably, reduces how much speculative premium we are paying, and limits our dependence on the broader market continuing to rise.

If the Pokémon market keeps climbing, those cards can still participate. If the market rolls over, I would rather own scarce cards purchased below replacement cost than high-dollar cards whose prices depend on peak confidence and a steady stream of buyers willing to pay even more.

What is different this time?

The main difference is operational severity. PSA says its grading capacity is now five times higher than in 2021, and this time it paused only the four Value tiers while leaving Regular and faster services open. Collectors can monitor the backlog through PSA’s public Backlog Tracker, which is updated every two weeks with the same figures reviewed by PSA management: https://www.psacard.com/info/backlog-tracker.

What I’m doing

• I’m not submitting the First Partner promos I already own at $80 per card. Paying Regular-tier prices would destroy the investment economics. There is no attractive move here other than holding the cards and waiting for the Value tiers to reopen.

• I’m not buying additional raw cards that need to be graded. With the Value tiers closed and no firm reopening date, buying raw cards would tie up capital for an unknown amount of time. In the last cycle, the backlog was not fully resolved until the market had already fallen sharply.

• I’m focusing on already-graded cards selling below replacement cost. The best opportunities will likely be rare cards where the PSA 10 price is lower than the realistic cost of acquiring raw copies, absorbing the gem-rate risk, and paying for grading.

• I may selectively use the $80 Regular tier for higher-end cards. If a card is valuable enough that an $80 grading fee still makes economic sense, I may do some “whale hunting” to keep things interesting. Those purchases will sit outside the formal investment recommendations and will be treated more as collector-driven or speculative buys.

• I’m monitoring the backlog closely. I will track its decline month over month and reassess the strategy as PSA gets closer to reopening the Value tiers.

Bottom Line

The pause does not prove that the Pokémon market is about to crash, but it is a clear sign that grading demand and speculative activity are running hot. Until the backlog improves, I’m prioritizing liquidity and margin of safety: already-graded, genuinely scarce cards purchased below replacement cost, with only selective exceptions where the $80 grading fee still makes sense.

The Lead: 30th Celebration Preorders Open

The biggest Pokémon TCG story this week was the opening of Pokémon Center preorders for 30th Celebration, the anniversary expansion Pokémon first unveiled on June 1. The set will launch worldwide on September 16, 2026, marking the first Pokémon TCG expansion scheduled for a simultaneous global release. Every card in the expansion will be foil. The set will also introduce a new rarity called Futuristic rare, with Mew ex and Mewtwo ex among the first cards revealed in that style.

The expansion will also include 30 different Pikachu cards, each illustrated by a different artist, with one Pikachu guaranteed in every booster pack. A separate 30-card Classic Collection will reprint cards from across the game’s history, including the original Base Set Charizard.

Pokémon also revealed Espeon ex and Umbreon ex artwork connected to the set’s Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections. Those products are scheduled for November 6. The artwork on these things is awesome. I expect these to be among the most sought-after promos in the entire series.

Preorders for select 30th Celebration products opened on Pokémon Center on July 15. The Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box was priced at $59.99, limited to two per customer, and the initial allocation became unavailable later that day. I tried to buy two, but they were gone by the time I made it through the queue. That is the first meaningful demand reading for 30th Celebration products, but it needs to be interpreted carefully.

The immediate takeaway is that obtaining the premium products at retail may be difficult, particularly during the first wave. The $179.99 Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections will each contain 29 standard booster packs, one three-card Classic Collection booster pack, and exclusive promo cards. Those products are likely to attract significantly more attention than the Pokémon Center ETB.

At the same time, a fast preorder sellout measures both demand and the size of the initial allocation. It does not tell us how much product Pokémon will ultimately release or how widely available later waves will be. Early scarcity should not automatically be treated as evidence of long-term scarcity.

That distinction should determine what you are willing to pay on the secondary market. I will cover every product, the cost-per-pack math, and my buying strategy in an upcoming 30th Celebration deep dive.

Quick Hits

Products & Releases

Pitch Black launches July 17. PokéBeach’s full set guide is up. Looking through the list, I don’t see many cards in this set that will be in high demand. No full arts of the franchise stars like Pikachu, Mewtwo, or Charizard. Some sets are for players and some for collectors/investors. This looks looks like a players set. Watching launch-week raw card pricing to confirm, but my starting read is: this is a set you let other people open and pick off the 1 or 2 special illustration rares worth holding.

Japanese Releases of 30th Celebration & First Partner Promos. I’ll be watching the Japanese release of the 30th Celebration set closely. In Japan, the set will be sold in traditional 20-pack booster boxes, with the official price working out to roughly $2.20 per pack. The English release will not have traditional booster boxes or individually sold packs. Instead, packs will be available only inside products such as Elite Trainer Boxes, tins and Booster Bundles. The six-pack Booster Bundle offers the lowest announced English price at $4.49 per pack. In the short term, the market prices in these price differences. But in the long term, it matters a lot less. Everyone wants the iconic cards in either Japanese or English.

Then on October 16, Japan releases its 30th Celebration Card Sets, nine boxes covering all 27 starters at once, Japan’s version of our First Partner Illustration Collections. If you hold English First Partner positions like I do, JP pricing on those boxes is a signal worth watching. I always track the same card artwork is doing in both the Japanese and English markets.

Promo Watch

McDonald’s Japan teased its next Pokémon Happy Meal promotion. McDonald’s Japan teased its next Pokémon Happy Set promotion. The company used starter Pokémon and Pikachu imagery, but it has not confirmed that trading cards will be included.

For now, I am filing this one under homework. Last year’s Japanese McDonald’s card promotion attracted overwhelming demand and ended early, but that does not guarantee that the next promotion will include cards or produce the same result.

I do not know the cross-promotional card market well enough yet to have a strong view. I will research the previous releases, their print volumes and their secondary-market performance before making any recommendations.

The 2026 Championship Series promos revealed.

Pokémon has revealed several promo cards connected to the 2026 World Championships and PokémonXP. The most limited is the annual Paradise Resort card, which will be distributed to competitors at the World Championships. PokémonXP and Worlds attendees will receive a PokémonXP-stamped Rayquaza promo.

A separate Pikachu promo will be available to participants in local Play! Pokémon Worlds Celebration tournaments held from August 21 through August 30. Tournament winners will receive a specially stamped version. Those distinctions matter. The competitor-only Paradise Resort card belongs to a much narrower distribution category than the local participation Pikachu. They should not be evaluated as though they have the same scarcity.

Watching Next Week

• Pitch Black launch (July 17) — What are buyers actually paying for the set’s Special Illustration Rares after the first weekend, and how quickly are presale prices falling?

• 30th Celebration preorder waves — I will be watching for additional Pokémon Center allocations and small restocks caused by canceled orders. Restock alerts are staying on, particularly ahead of any Pokémon Center listing for the Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections.

• First Partner Series 3 (August 7) — Series 3 releases August 7, less than three weeks from now. Preorder behavior will provide the next demand reading for my complete 27-card set thesis. The Series 2 buy alert, including my real cost basis, is already available to paid subscribers.

That’s the week. If you want the full 30th Celebration breakdown, every product, the cost-per-pack math, and what I’m actually buying, I’m working on the deep dive now. The Series 2 buy alert with my real cost basis is already up for paid subscribers.

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In 2026, Pokémon is releasing the First Partner Illustration Collection in the U.S., a promo-card product built around the starter Pokémon from across the franchise. Each box contains three illustration-style promo cards. Each series contains nine total promos to collect. Across all three series, the full English promo lineup is 27 cards.

The boxes launched at a $14.99 MSRP, meaning a nine-card series could theoretically be completed for $45 at retail if you could buy the exact three boxes you needed. That is extremely affordable compared to modern chase cards that can require hundreds or thousands of packs to pull one.

But the market is not treating these like ordinary $14.99 collection boxes. Series 1 boxes have been selling far above MSRP on the secondary market. Complete PSA 10 sets of the first nine promos have sold for extremely strong prices in early auctions. And when Series 2 released, I went to Target and saw a line out the door. That is not normal for a random promo product.

For collectors and investors, this kind of demand matters. This article breaks down what the First Partner Illustration Collection promos are, how the release works, what cards are included, and what the early market is doing.

What are the 2026 Pokémon First Partner Illustration Collection promos?

The 2026 Pokémon First Partner Illustration Collection promos are a U.S. promo-card release built around the starter Pokémon from across the Pokémon franchise. In Pokémon’s terminology, a “first partner” is the Pokémon a player chooses at the beginning of a game. Most collectors simply call them starter Pokémon.

The full English promo lineup includes 27 cards total, divided into three separate series. Each series contains nine promos. The important thing to understand is that you do NOT get all nine promos in one box. Each box gives you one regional trio.

For example, a Series 1 box can contain one of three possible trios:

• Bulbasaur, Charmander, and Squirtle

• Turtwig, Chimchar, and Piplup

• Rowlet, Litten, and Popplio

That blind regional mechanic is part of what makes the product interesting. You are not just buying a fixed promo box. You are buying a chance at one of the regional trios, and some trios clearly have more demand than others.

Here is what comes inside each English box:

That is the basic product structure: one box, one regional trio, plus two regular booster packs and a sticker sheet. From there, the real collector question is which regional trios are included in each series — because the demand is not evenly distributed across all starters.

Here is how the English release breaks down by series.

Series 1

Series 1 contains the following promo cards: Bulbasaur, Charmander, Squirtle, Turtwig, Chimchar, Piplup, Rowlet, Litten, and Popplio.

The basic math is: 3 regions × 3 cards = 9 cards total

Charmander, Bulbasaur, and Squirtle are carrying most of the raw-card demand for Series 1. The non-Kanto cards still matter for set completion, but they do not have the same demand profile.

Series 2

Series 2 was just released and includes the Johto, Unova, and Galar starters. The promo cards are as follows: Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Totodile, Snivy, Tepig, Oshawott, Grookey, Scorbunny, & Sobble.

Series 2 has not been on the market as long as Series 1, but the early pricing is already showing a familiar pattern. I bought a couple of boxes for around $50 on the secondary market. You can’t find any selling for the MSRP.

Series 3

Series 3 contains the remaining three starter regions:

• Hoenn

• Kalos

• Paldea

PokéBeach first reported those regions in May, then later reported that all 27 starter promos had been revealed, including the previously unseen Hoenn, Kalos, and Paldea cards. Series 3 is important because it completes the 27-card English set.

Hoenn will probably be the most in demand trio. Treecko, Torchic, and Mudkip have a stronger nostalgia profile than most modern starter trios, and I would not assume Series 3 will be weak just because it is the final wave.

Release schedule

Pokémon is releasing these promos in stages rather than all at once.

The English release schedule is as follows. By the end of the rollout, collectors will have a full 27-card First Partner Illustration Collection to chase.

The First Partner Illustration Collection is not English-only. Japan has its own version called the 30th Celebration Card Sets, scheduled for October 16, 2026, at 1,200 yen per box. The Japanese product is structured differently: each box contains three starter promos from the same generation, two 30th Celebration booster packs, and a paper display stand.

There is also a Simplified Chinese version in the market, which should be treated separately from English and Japanese for pricing. Do not blend comps across languages unless you are explicitly analyzing language arbitrage. English, Japanese, and Simplified Chinese may all have collector demand, but they are different markets with different supply, distribution, pricing, and buyer behavior. This article is strictly focused on the English promos.

What are the boxes selling for?

As of late June 2026, Series 1 is no longer trading like a normal $14.99 retail product. Secondary-market pricing is roughly in the $65–$80 range, with TCGplayer showing a market price in the mid-$70s and recent sales around that same level.

Series 2 has now released. Early post-release pricing appears to be settling lower than the earlier preorder spike, with boxes generally trading around the mid-$50s to mid-$60s. That is still roughly 4x retail, which tells you the demand is real even after the product has started hitting stores.

Series 3 has not released yet, so any pricing before real distribution is mostly speculative.

The important point is that buyers are not valuing these like ordinary $14.99 collection boxes. They are valuing them like premium promo collectibles with real secondary-market demand.

Series 1 & 2 raw card pricing snapshot

Series 1 has the cleanest market data so far because it has been live the longest. Series 2 is newer, but it is already showing a similar pattern: the most popular starter trio in each wave is carrying the raw-card market. Approximate raw prices as of late June 2026:

Series 1 Raw Prices

Below are the nine Series 1 First Partner Illustration Collection promos. The cards are grouped by region: Kanto on the top row, Sinnoh in the middle row, and Alola on the bottom row.

Here is the approximate raw price for each card as of June 26, 2026. The raw market is doing exactly what you would expect. Kanto is the most in demand. Charmander, Bulbasaur, and Squirtle are carrying the set. The non-Kanto starters are much cheaper raw, even when the artwork is strong.

Series 2

Below are the nine Series 2 First Partner Illustration Collection promos. The cards are grouped by region: Johto on the top row, Unova in the middle row, and Galar on the bottom row.

Here is the approximate raw price for each card as of June 26th, 2026. Series 2 has not been on the market as long as Series 1, but the early pricing is already showing a familiar pattern. The Johto starters are carrying the wave, with Totodile, Chikorita, and Cyndaquil leading raw demand. The Unova and Galar cards are still moving, but at much lower prices.

Based on current individual raw prices, a full raw Series 1 set is roughly a $165–$180 card set. That is already far above the clean MSRP math of three $14.99 boxes, but it lines up reasonably well with the current sealed-box market. If Series 1 boxes are selling around $65–$80 each, then three sealed boxes are roughly $195–$240 before tax and shipping. At that point, paying around $165–$180 for the complete raw set is not irrational. You are paying less than the implied cost of buying sealed boxes on the secondary market, and you are removing the risk of not ending up with the exact cards you need.

Series 2 looks similar, but with slightly different math. Based on current individual prices, the full raw Series 2 set is roughly a $190–$225 card set. Series 2 boxes are currently trading closer to $55–$65 each, which puts three boxes at about $165–$195 on the secondary market. That makes the raw set pricing a little more aggressive than Series 1, but not crazy given how new the release is and how strong the Johto demand appears to be.

The bigger point is that the raw sets are not trading off MSRP anymore. They are trading off secondary-market replacement cost. Once the boxes move from $14.99 retail products to $50, $60, or $70 secondary-market products, the raw cards have a new pricing floor. Collectors are no longer comparing a complete raw set to MSRP. They are comparing it to the cost, hassle, and availability of acquiring enough sealed product to complete the set.

Bottom line

The First Partner Illustration Collection promos are real collector-interest products, not random throwaway promos. The combination of starter Pokémon, anniversary timing, illustration-style art, blind regional packs, and set-building demand gives them a credible market setup.

At MSRP, the boxes were obvious buys. But MSRP is mostly theoretical now. The product sold quickly, many stores limited purchases, and the secondary market has already moved. That does not mean every box, raw card, or PSA 10 is automatically attractive. It means the product deserves serious attention.

The next question is not just what these promos are. The better question is how to approach them: sealed, raw, graded, or as a complete PSA 10 set. That is where the investment math starts.

In Part 2, for paid subscribers, I break down how I’m thinking about the actual investment setup: sealed boxes versus raw singles, raw-to-PSA 10 grading economics, population-growth risk, and why my preferred strategy is building toward a complete PSA 10 set.

BUY ALERT: 4 English Special Illustration Rares

Status: Buying Now

Conviction Level: High

Target Exit: 12–24 Months

• The Asset: Rotom Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 126/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $102.84

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 3,606 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.62%

• Replacement Cost: $575

• The Asset: Mega Sharpedo Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 127/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $116.50

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 5,530 | Gem Mint Rate: 63.20%

• Replacement Cost: $569

• The Asset: Mega Lopunny Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 128/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $98.51

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,005 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.97%

• Replacement Cost: $572

• The Asset: Dawn (Trainer) | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 129/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $135.30

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,302 | Gem Mint Rate: 51.52%

• Replacement Cost: $699

Background

These purchases are Special Illustration Rares distributed as part of the Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames expansion, a retail product released on November 14, 2025. The set includes one Mega Hyper Rare Gold Card (Mega Charizard) and five Special Illustration Rares : Mega Charizard X ex (125/094), Rotom ex (126/094), Mega Sharpedo ex (127/094), Mega Lopunny ex (128/094), and Dawn Trainer (129/094)

• Set Contents: This product features 13 Illustration Rares, 16 Ultra Rares, 5 Special Illustration Rares, and One Mega Hyper Rare. The only investable cards from this set are the Meowth Illustration Rare (Card #106), the Special Illustration Rares, and the Mega Hyper Rare Charizard (Card #130). You can basically ignore everything else from a money-making perspective.

• Limited Supply: The pull rates for Special Illustration Rares in this set are 1 in 80 packs. This isn’t bad compared to some of the more difficult sets where the chase cards can run close to 1 in 1,000 packs. Nevertheless, it still means that it would cost approximately $360 worth of packs before you could pull one of the Special Illustration Rares. And given the PSA 10 rate is only 60%, you likely need to pull at least 2 before you have a PSA 10 candidate.

The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)

1. The PSA 10 Prices Are Too Low Relative to Replacement Costs

Based on the pull-rate math, the estimated cost to pull any SIR from Phantasmal Flames is roughly $360 using a $4.50 booster-pack assumption. Then you still have to grade the card. After adjusting for PSA 10 gem rates, the estimated gross PSA 10 replacement costs are:

• Rotom ex: ~$576

• Mega Sharpedo ex: ~$572

• Mega Lopunny ex: ~$572

• Dawn: ~$700

The current PSA 10 prices are nowhere close to those numbers. Most are trading around $100–$135. Replacement cost is not a hard floor, but it matters. It tells me that new PSA 10 supply is expensive to create. When the market lets me buy finished PSA 10s for a fraction of that cost, I pay attention.

2. The Market Is Barely Charging for the Cards Themselves

The raw cards are already worth roughly $20–$30 each. The lowest realistic grading costs are roughly $20–$40, and after shipping, supplies, fees, and friction, I’m using about $30 as a practical average. So if I’m buying PSA 10s around $100, the market is barely charging me for the card itself.

Roughly speaking:

• raw card value: $20–$30

• grading/friction cost: ~$30

• PSA 10 market price: ~$100

That leaves only about $40–$50 of premium for already having the card in a PSA 10 holder. For a modern Special Illustration Rare from a major set, that feels too cheap.

3. I Get To Skip The Grading Risk

If I bought these raw, I would still need to inspect condition, submit to PSA, pay grading costs, wait for the cards to come back, and absorb any PSA 9s. That process takes time, especially in a hot market, and the extra fees can add up quickly.

Instead, I’m buying the finished PSA 10s directly. At these prices, I do not need to take the grading risk. The PSA 10 premium is low enough that I would rather own the slab now than try to create it myself.

4. This Is the Type of Setup I Like

These are not hype buys. They are cheap, rare, graded modern cards where the market price looks disconnected from the production math.

The cards are:

• Special Illustration Rares

• from a major Mega Evolution-era set

• already graded PSA 10

• priced around $100

• trading far below gross replacement cost

• overlooked because Charizard is absorbing most of the attention

From years of buying and selling cards, this is the type of setup I want to own. Rare cards can stay cheap for a while, especially during the early supply flood. But years later, the market usually cares that they were hard to pull, hard to grade, and cheap when everyone was focused elsewhere.

The Market Data

• Rotom ex #126/094

  • Entry Price: $102.84 | Buy Range: under $115 | Raw Market Price: ~$19–$20

  • PSA 10 Pop: 3,721 | Gem Rate: 62.62%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$575

• Mega Sharpedo ex #127

  • Entry Price: $116.50 | Buy Range: under $125 | Raw Market Price: ~$24–$25

  • PSA 10 Pop: 5,574 | Gem Rate: 63.20%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$569

• Mega Lopunny ex #128

  • Entry Price: $98.51 | Buy Range: under $120 | Raw Market Price: ~$20–$21

  • PSA 10 Pop: 4,127 | Gem Rate: 62.97%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$572

• Dawn #129

  • Entry Price: $135.30 | Buy Range: under $145 | Raw Market Price: ~$25–$29

  • PSA 10 Pop: 4,431 | Gem Rate: 51.52%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$699

Execution Instructions

• Where to Buy: Prioritize reputable marketplaces and sellers: verified eBay sellers, TCGPlayer sellers with strong feedback, PWCC, Goldin, Alt, Collectors, or established card shops with clear return policies.

• Verify the PSA Cert: Before buying, look up the PSA certification number on PSA’s website. Confirm that the card name, grade, language, set, and certification details match the listing. Check the PSA cert image, if available, and make sure it matches the actual card being sold—same card, same label, same cert number, and no obvious image mismatch.

• Check The Eye Appeal: PSA 10 is a baseline, inspect for centering, sharp corners, clean edges, and overall presentation. Aim for strong centering, ideally close to 50/50. Pass on off-center copies, weak eye appeal, or cards that technically grade PSA 10 but would look mediocre in a premium resale set.

• Buying Tip: Confirm you are buying the English version, not the Japanese version. Most chase cards are released in both Japanese and English sets, but values can differ widely. If a price seems too low or too high, it is most likely the wrong version.

Final Thoughts

The buy range outlined above is where I like these cards. Above those levels, I would be more selective. I would stop buying if the PSA 10 prices move materially higher before the market gives me a better reason to pay up.

The whole thesis depends on buying these while they are still cheap relative to raw value, grading cost, and gross replacement cost. At current prices, I like the asymmetry. The downside looks limited because the PSA 10s are already close to raw-card value plus grading cost. The upside is meaningful if the market eventually reprices these as scarce, graded SIRs from an important modern set.

The TCG market is so hot right now that finding cards at a reasonable price is getting tougher, but I pulled the trigger on these for the portfolio.

Before I buy any Pokémon card — raw or already graded — I run math. The goal is not to predict the future perfectly. The goal is to avoid guessing.

For any serious card, I want to compare the main acquisition paths:

1. Open packs

2. Buy raw

3. Buy raw and grade

4. Buy the PSA 10 directly

Most collectors look at the raw price and the PSA 10 price and assume the spread is profit. That is usually wrong. The spread only matters after you account for pull rates, grading odds, grading fees, failed grades, shipping, taxes, selling fees, time, and liquidity.

The basic questions are:

• What are the pull rates?

• What does it cost, on average, to pull the card from sealed product?

• How does that compare to the current raw price?

• What are the odds a raw copy actually becomes a PSA 10?

• Is the PSA 10 premium large enough to justify buying raw and grading?

• Or is it smarter to buy the PSA 10 outright?

That is acquisition math. It does not tell me which card is the chase card. That is a separate judgment. This framework helps me decide the right way to buy a card once I already know I want exposure.

1: Calculate Pack-Implied Replacement Cost

The first number I calculate is the card’s pack-implied replacement cost. That is the estimated cost to pull the card from sealed product instead of buying it as a single. This matters because every new raw copy has to come from opened packs. If a card takes hundreds or thousands of packs to pull, new supply is expensive to create.

That does not mean every hard-to-pull card is a good buy. Pull difficulty only matters if there is real demand behind it. Character, artwork, set context, liquidity, and entry price still matter.

But for a true chase card, pack-implied replacement cost gives me an important reference point. It is not a hard floor. Singles can trade below pull cost, especially when release supply is flooding the market or reprints are still hitting. But if a card takes hundreds or thousands of packs to pull, then new supply is expensive to create. That gives the raw price economic support, as long as collector demand remains intact.

That is why I start here. Replacement cost tells me whether opening packs makes sense and whether the raw card has support underneath it. It does not tell me the full strategy. After that, I still need to compare the raw price, the PSA 10 price, the gem rate, grading fees, failed grades, and time.

In other words, replacement cost answers the first question: Is this card expensive to produce from sealed product?

The next question is: What is the smartest way to acquire it?

The easiest way to see why this matters is to run the numbers on a real card. Let’s walk through the calculation using Mega Charizard X ex from Phantasmal Flames.

Example: Mega Charizard X ex

The Mega Charizard X ex is the main chase card from Phantasmal Flames. If we want to acquire it as an investment piece, the first question is simple: what would it cost, on average, to pull one from sealed product?

Series: Mega Evolution Series

Set: Phantasmal Flames

Card: Mega Charizard X ex (125/94)

Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

The first thing I do is look up the pull rates. For this example, I’m using TCGplayer’s published pull-rate estimate.

According to TCGplayer, the estimated pull rate for any Special Illustration Rare in Phantasmal Flames is about 1 in 80 packs. If a standard Pokémon booster pack costs $4.50, then the expected cost to pull any Special Illustration Rare is:

Special Illustration Rare Cost = $4.50 per pack × 80 packs = $360

Next, I pulled the current market price for all the Special Illustration Rares from Phantasmal Flames (see below)

You can see in the table 4 of the 5 SIR’s can be purchased raw for about $25.

That immediately rules out opening packs as the acquisition strategy for most SIRs. Most of the Special Illustration Rares from Phantasmal Flames can be purchased raw for around $25. Opening packs to acquire those cards makes no financial sense. You would be spending hundreds of dollars, on average, to pull a card you could buy for a fraction of that price. Opening packs may be fun. It is usually not a serious acquisition strategy.

But chase cards are different. In this set, the card most buyers care about from an investment perspective is Mega Charizard X ex. The current raw market price is much higher than the other SIRs — roughly $800–$900.

So the real question is not:

» What does it cost to pull any SIR?

The real question is:

» What does it cost, on average, to pull this specific SIR?

If the set has roughly five Special Illustration Rares and we assume they are distributed evenly, then pulling Mega Charizard X ex specifically would require about five SIR pulls on average.

The math becomes:

Mega Charizard X Cost = $4.50 per pack × 80 packs per SIR × 5 SIRs = $1,800

So the pack-implied replacement cost of one raw Mega Charizard X ex is about $1,800. That does not mean the card has to trade at $1,800 raw. The singles market can price cards below pull cost, especially right after release when supply is hitting the market quickly. But it means a new raw copy is expensive to create. That is the key distinction between a random $25 SIR and the main chase card from the set. Both may have the same rarity label. They do not have the same demand profile, liquidity, or acquisition math.

Now the next question is grading.

If I can buy the raw card for far less than its pack-implied replacement cost, should I buy raw and submit it to PSA? Or should I skip the uncertainty and buy the PSA 10 directly?

2: Adjust For Grading

The raw card is only part of the decision. Recent PSA 10 sales for Mega Charizard X ex have been around $2,300.

At first glance, the opportunity looks obvious:

• buy raw for around $900

• submit to PSA

• pay the grading fee

• end up with a PSA 10 worth around $2,300

But a raw card is not automatically a PSA 10. Before I assume a raw copy can become a 10, I want to know how difficult the card is to grade. That means checking the PSA population report.

For this card, PSA shows 23,536 PSA 10s out of 39,128 total graded copies. That is a PSA 10 gem rate of about 60%. But that number needs to be interpreted correctly. A 60% gem rate does not mean 60% of all copies in the wild are PSA 10 quality. People usually do not submit obviously damaged, off-center, whitened, or scratched copies. Most submitters pre-screen before paying grading fees, shipping, and insurance.

So I read the PSA gem rate like this:

» Of the copies people thought were worth grading, 60% received a PSA 10.

That is useful, but it should not make you casual. Even after pre-screening, 40% of submitted copies did not get a 10. If the PSA 10 rate is 60%, then the expected number of raw copies needed to produce one PSA 10 is: 1 ÷ 0.60 = 1.66 copies. Now we can update the math.

First, the pack-implied replacement cost for one raw copy:

» Raw Replacement Cost = $4.50 per pack × 80 packs × 5 SIRs = $1,800

Then the pack-implied cost to produce one PSA 10:

» PSA 10 Replacement Cost = $4.50 per pack × 80 packs × 5 SIRs × 1.66 copies = $2,988

So while the raw card may trade around $900 and the PSA 10 may trade around $2,300, the estimated cost to produce a PSA 10 from sealed product is almost $3,000. That is why paying $2,300 for an already graded PSA 10 can still make sense.

You are not just paying for the card. You are paying to remove uncertainty:

• no need to open hundreds of packs

• no need to find a clean raw copy

• no need to submit and hope PSA gives it a 10

• no need to recycle failed grades

A PSA 10 can look expensive compared to a raw copy. But if the PSA 10 trades below the economic cost of producing another PSA 10 through packs and grading, the price may have more support than it appears. That does not automatically mean buy the PSA 10. It means the PSA 10 price is not random. There is acquisition math underneath it.

3. Buy Raw And Grade vs Buy The PSA 10

Now that we have estimated the replacement cost, the next question is acquisition strategy. Should I buy raw copies and try to grade them myself? Or should I skip the uncertainty and buy the PSA 10 directly? This is where a lot of investors make bad decisions. They look at the raw price and the PSA 10 price and assume the spread is profit.

Using the example:

• Raw copy: $900

• PSA 10 copy: $2,300

• Apparent spread: $1,400

That spread is not pure profit.

The real question is: What does it cost me, on average, to produce one PSA 10?

With a 60% PSA 10 rate, I need about 1.66 raw copies to produce one PSA 10. So the expected raw-card cost per PSA 10 is: $900 × 1.66 = $1,494. Now add grading. For simplicity, assume a $20 grading fee per card. In a real purchase, I would use the actual grading tier, shipping, insurance, taxes, and any possible upcharges. But for a clean baseline: $20 × 1.66 = $33. So the rough baseline cost to produce one PSA 10 is: $1,494 + $33 = $1,527

That looks good compared to buying the PSA 10 directly for $2,300. But it is still not frictionless. I have to find clean raw copies, inspect photos, avoid hidden flaws, pay transaction costs, receive and inspect the card, submit it, wait for PSA, and deal with any failed grades. If a card comes back PSA 9, I do not reset the trade for free. I either keep the 9, sell it, or try again. Every option has a cost. That is why the raw-to-PSA 10 spread has to be wide enough to compensate me for more than just the grading fee. It has to compensate me for execution risk.

Why Gem Rate Changes the Decision

Now keep the prices exactly the same, but change only the PSA 10 rate.

Assume:

• Raw copy: $900

• PSA 10 copy: $2,300

• Grading fee: $20

• PSA 10 gem rate: 85% instead of 60%

At an 85% gem rate, I do not need 1.66 raw copies to produce one PSA 10. I need:

1 ÷ 0.85 = 1.18 copies

Now the math changes: $900 × 1.18 = $1,062 expected raw-card cost

Grading fees: $20 × 1.18 = $24

Baseline cost to produce one PSA 10: $1,062 + $24 = $1,086

Same raw price. Same PSA 10 price. Same grading fee. Completely different decision. At a 60% gem rate, buying raw and grading may still work, but I need to be much more careful. The margin can disappear quickly after shipping, insurance, failed grades, selling fees, and time. At an 85% gem rate, raw-and-grade becomes much more attractive. The expected cost to produce a PSA 10 is lower, and there is more room for friction before the trade stops making sense.

That does not mean I automatically buy raw at an 85% gem rate. I still need to inspect the specific copy. I still need to make sure the raw card is not overpriced. But the higher the gem rate, the more forgiving the raw-and-grade strategy becomes. The lower the gem rate, the more I prefer buying the PSA 10 directly unless the raw copy is unusually cheap or unusually clean.

The Two Routes Have Different Advantages

Buying raw and grading can produce a better return, but only if the spread is wide enough and your grading edge is real.

The raw-and-grade route requires:

• finding raw copies that actually look gradable

• inspecting photos carefully

• avoiding sellers hiding flaws

• paying taxes, shipping, and marketplace fees

• inspecting the card again in person

• paying grading fees, shipping, insurance, and supplies

• waiting while the card is at PSA

• accepting the risk that the card comes back a 9 or lower

Buying the PSA 10 is cleaner.

You pay more upfront, but you remove several uncertainties:

• no grading risk

• no condition risk

• no submission delay

• no failed-grade recycling problem

• less execution burden

The mistake is thinking the PSA 10 is automatically too expensive because the raw card is cheaper. The raw card is cheaper because it carries uncertainty. The PSA 10 is more expensive because that uncertainty has already been resolved.

My Decision Rule

For me to buy raw and grade, I need a large enough spread to justify the work and risk.

The spread has to cover:

• enough raw copies to realistically produce a 10

• grading fees

• shipping and insurance

• failed grades

• marketplace fees

• time

• the chance that the market moves against me while I wait

If the spread is wide, the gem rate is favorable, and I have a real edge finding clean copies, buying raw and grading can be the better strategy. If the spread is thin, the gem rate is low, or I do not have a strong edge finding clean raw copies, I would rather buy the PSA 10 directly. In the Mega Charizard X ex example, with a 60% PSA 10 rate, I would probably buy the PSA 10 unless I had a strong edge finding unusually clean raw copies or I can get a steal buying a raw copy in an auction.

If the same card had an 85% PSA 10 rate, the decision would change. Raw-and-grade becomes much more interesting because the expected number of raw copies needed to produce one PSA 10 drops from 1.66 copies to 1.18 copies. That difference matters.

Bottom Line

1. The spread between a raw Pokémon card and a PSA 10 is not automatically profit.

2. Raw is better when the spread is wide, the gem rate is high, and your grading edge is real.

3. PSA 10 is better when the spread is too thin to compensate you for uncertainty, time, failed grades, fees, and execution risk.

4. Opening packs is usually the worst acquisition strategy if your goal is to get a specific card. Buying raw or buying graded is usually cleaner.

5. But the pack math still matters. If a chase card takes hundreds or thousands of packs to pull, that creates real economic support under the price. It does not guarantee the card cannot fall, but it means new supply is expensive to create. For the right card, that changes how I think about downside risk.

Another positive month in the books. Pokémon is up +10.86% in the last 90 days compared to the S&P 500’s year-to-date return of approximately -3.8% (as of early April 2026). That’s why every diversified portfolio should have investments in the Pokémon card market. TCGIndex’s Game Value Index — which tracks the aggregate marketplace value of one copy of each of the ~30,891 cards monitored — currently sits at $754,804.

Key highlights (as of early April 2026):

• 7-day return: +0.32% (56% of cards advanced)

• 30-day return: +3.46%

• 90-day return: +10.86% (compared to the S&P 500’s year-to-date return of approximately -3.8% as of early April 2026)

• Momentum regime: Neutral (score 57/100)

• Volatility: Moderate (30-day window)

The 30-day daily % change chart shows a relatively flat but resilient line with only minor pullbacks and a gentle recovery in recent sessions — classic consolidation after the strong 90-day run. Overall, the market feels steady and constructive rather than frothy, with broad participation (over half the cards moving higher in the past week) and no extreme swings.

March saw continued strength in modern Scarlet & Violet chase cards, particularly Special Illustration Rares from sets like Twilight Masquerade (Greninja ex SIR pushing past $320) and Journey Together, alongside solid gains in popular modern Eeveelution cards and Scarlet & Violet—151 product. Vintage and high-end sealed remained resilient, supported by 30th anniversary hype and notable record sales in graded Charizards. New releases such as Mega Evolution—Perfect Order hit shelves this week, adding fresh product flow without disrupting the broader uptrend.

This paints a picture of a maturing Pokémon TCG investment landscape: positive momentum without the wild volatility seen in prior cycles. Over the past 90 days, Pokémon cards have delivered a solid +10.86% return while the S&P 500 has posted a negative year-to-date performance of roughly -3.8%. Pokémon continues to reward patient, diversified holders while offering selective opportunities in strong modern sets and timeless vintage pieces.

Zero to Hero Challenge – April 2026 Update

The Zero to Hero challenge is progressing well as the portfolio begins to diversify beyond the initial pair. After adding two new Japanese promos in March, the current allocation now includes four distinct cards with a total cost basis of $449 and a market value of $648, delivering a solid overall +44.32% unrealized ROI.

I’ll continue scaling this Japanese promo sleeve toward the 10–20% portfolio target and will keep you posted with each new addition. Next market update drops in May — see you then!

Japanese Promos

This portion of the portfolio focuses exclusively on Japanese promotional cards — a high-value and strategically important niche within the broader Pokémon TCG ecosystem. While still in the early stages, the long-term target is for this category to make up 10–20% of the overall portfolio.

Current % of Portfolio: 100.0%
Unrealized ROI: +44.32%

The current holdings consist of the following PSA 10 Japanese promos:

The original matched Miraidon and Koraidon pair from the limited “Triplet Beat” Sealed Battle event continues to drive the majority of the gains, maintaining strong collector demand and a noticeable pairing premium. The two newer additions (Meowth and Paldean Wooper) were acquired already graded and are currently flat, providing additional diversification within the Japanese promo niche while we monitor their appreciation potential.

With strictly limited supply across these event-driven promos and steady interest from dedicated collectors, this sleeve continues to show attractive risk/reward characteristics. My standard holding period remains 12–24 months, and I’m actively scouting the next cards to add in the coming weeks.

That wraps up this month’s Zero to Hero update. I’ll send an alert the moment the next card(s) hit the portfolio.

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

BUY ALERT: Meowth & Paldean Wooper Promos

Status: Buying Now

Conviction Level: High

Target Exit: 12–24 Months

The Asset Snapshot

• Asset: Meowth | 2024 Japanese SV-P Promo

• Card #: 192/SV-P (Meowth) | Rarity: Sealed Battle Promo Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $135.30

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 13,294 | Gem Mint Rate: ~82%

The Asset Snapshot

• Asset: Paldean Wooper | 2024 Japanese SV-P Promo

• Card #: 193/SV-P (Paldean Wooper) | Rarity: Sealed Battle Promo Illustration Rares

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $44.37

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 5,753 | Gem Mint Rate: ~82%

Background

These promos were exclusively distributed as part of the “Start Deck Generations Special Battle Set” (スタートデッキジェネレーションズスペシャルバトルセット), a retail product released on November 22, 2024, in Japan. The set includes four pre-constructed starter decks themed around different Pokémon generations, along with four promo cards: Meowth (192/SV-P), Paldean Wooper (193/SV-P), Suicune (194/SV-P), and Duraludon (195/SV-P), all as Illustration Rares. Meowth and Paldean Wooper are the full-art Illustration Rares, which is why I’m focusing on those two specifically (out of the four).

• Set Contents: The product features four 60-card pre-constructed decks (Pikachu ex & Snorlax ex, Lugia ex & Tyranitar ex, Zacian ex & Alcremie ex, and Koraidon ex & Clodsire ex), the four promo cards, 2 Pokémon coins, a set of damage counters/markers, a paper playmat, a beginner’s guide, a how-to-play manual, a damage counter case, and a card box as incentives for purchase. Unlike mass-produced booster pulls, these promos are tied directly to the set’s limited print run and availability through official Pokémon Card Gym stores and retailers in Japan.

• Limited Manner: While available at retail, the set sold out quickly in secondary markets, with promos becoming scarce post-release. No additional printings or booster inclusions; supply is fixed once distribution ends. Secondary market listings for sealed sets now command premiums (~$200+ USD).

The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)

1. Fixed Supply from a Themed Release

These Illustration Rare promos were packaged in a 2024 set celebrating Pokémon generations, making them inherently limited without the endless reprints seen in core expansions.

• The Fact: Production halted after the initial run, capping the total pool of cards entering the market. As Scarlet & Violet winds down, these become more sought after (especially in high grades).

• The Reasoning: Japanese promos like these have a history of appreciating as the Pokémon TCG community shifts to new generations. I like promos because you’re not competing with endless pack openings; I’m investing in high-grade copies with a finite release.

2. The PSA 10 Absorption Phase

Just over a year post-release, we’re seeing early holders transition to dedicated collectors, driving up graded demand amid broader TCG trends.

• The Logic: With the 30th Anniversary celebrations wrapping up, enthusiasts are curating sets around generational themes, pulling high-grade examples off the market for good.

• The Multiplier: Each PSA 10 tucked into a collection reduces available inventory, creating upward pressure on prices. The pair’s charming, fan-favorite designs (cute Wooper and classic Meowth) in a full art form amplify this effect in a community hungry for nostalgic pieces.

3. Quick Upside in Modern Assets

Vintage cards tie up big capital with gradual appreciation; this affordable promo duo targets faster returns in a dynamic market.

• The Alpha: At sub-$200 entry, we’re positioned for strong growth, potentially doubling value by leveraging the set’s anniversary-adjacent appeal.

• The Exit: I’ll look to sell them as a pair around $350–$400 in the next couple years. This is far more feasible than offloading pricier classics, emphasizing agility for portfolio building.

The Market Data

• Current PSA 10 Floor: $44 (Paldean Wooper) & $135 (Meowth)

• Est. Post-Era Value: $350+ (Combined Pair)

• Target Profit: +$175 per pair

• Max Risk: -$45 per pair (Based on market floor)

• Liquidity Rating: Moderate (Strong demand for Japanese AR promos, especially themed pairs)

Execution Instructions

• Where to Buy: Verified eBay sellers or TCGPlayer with high ratings; look for bundled listings if available.

• Check The Eye Appeal: PSA 10 is a baseline—inspect for centering (aim for 50/50), sharp corners, and clean edges. Pass on off-center copies; premium examples fetch more at resale.

• Buying Tip: Confirm Japanese versions (kanji text); avoid English or other language variants, which are less scarce. Buy as a pair when possible to match the portfolio strategy.

• The “Pass” Trigger: If the combined price exceeds $220, margins thin for the target window. Skip and await the next alert.

  ---

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

#25: Machamp V (Astral Radiance) — $146.80

• Set: Astral Radiance

• Card Number: 172/216

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $146.68

• PSA 10 Price: $309.30

• Release Date: May 27, 2022

#26: Pikachu VMAX (Vivid Voltage) — $142.60

• Set: Vivid Voltage

• Card Number: 188/203

• Rarity: Rare Rainbow

• Raw Price: $128.50

• PSA 10 Price: $303.15

• Release Date: November 13, 2020

#27: Charizard (Celebrations: Classic Collection) — $132.28

• Set: Celebrations: Classic Collection

• Card Number: 4/25

• Rarity: Classic Collection

• Raw Price: $143.33

• PSA 10 Price: $555.50

• Release Date: October 08, 2021

#28: Charizard VMAX (Shining Fates Shiny Vault) — $125.11

• Set: Shining Fates Shiny Vault

• Card Number: SV107/122

• Rarity: Rare Holo VMAX

• Raw Price: $107.26

• PSA 10 Price: $240.00

• Release Date: February 19, 2021

#29: Rayquaza VMAX (Silver Tempest Trainer Gallery) — $118.93

• Set: Silver Tempest Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG20/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo VMAX

• Raw Price: $100.25

• PSA 10 Price: $223.09

• Release Date: November 11, 2022

#30: Leafeon V (Evolving Skies) — $116.75

• Set: Evolving Skies

• Card Number: 167/237

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $95.73

• PSA 10 Price: $240.00

• Release Date: August 27, 2021

#31: Arceus VSTAR (Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery) — $116.50

• Set: Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery

• Card Number: GG70/70

• Rarity: Rare Secret

• Raw Price: $102.75

• PSA 10 Price: $233.43

• Release Date: January 20, 2023

#32: Glaceon V (Evolving Skies) — $99.41

• Set: Evolving Skies

• Card Number: 175/237

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $105.00

• PSA 10 Price: $254.99

• Release Date: August 27, 2021

#33: Mew V (Fusion Strike) — $96.18

• Set: Fusion Strike

• Card Number: 251/284

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $84.00

• PSA 10 Price: $315.00

• Release Date: November 12, 2021

#34: Starmie V (Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery) — $95.51

• Set: Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG13/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo V

• Raw Price: $87.77

• PSA 10 Price: $279.25

• Release Date: May 27, 2022

#35: Snorlax (Chilling Reign) — $93.55

• Set: Chilling Reign

• Card Number: 224/233

• Rarity: Rare Secret

• Raw Price: $81.87

• PSA 10 Price: $215.13

• Release Date: June 18, 2021

#36: Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR (Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery) — $84.98

• Set: Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery

• Card Number: GG68/70

• Rarity: Rare Secret

• Raw Price: $83.99

• PSA 10 Price: $192.50

• Release Date: January 20, 2023

#37: Rapid Strike Urshifu VMAX (Battle Styles) — $77.40

• Set: Battle Styles

• Card Number: 170/183

• Rarity: Rare Rainbow

• Raw Price: $70.00

• PSA 10 Price: $162.50

• Release Date: March 19, 2021

#38: Shadow Rider Calyrex VMAX (Chilling Reign) — $76.20

• Set: Chilling Reign

• Card Number: 205/233

• Rarity: Rare Rainbow

• Raw Price: $73.42

• Raw Price: $62.31

• PSA 10 Price: $137.50

• Release Date: June 18, 2021

#39: Pikachu VMAX (Lost Origin Trainer Gallery) — $74.04

• Set: Lost Origin Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG17/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo VMAX

• Raw Price: $73.42

• PSA 10 Price: $203.50

• Release Date: September 09, 2022

#40: Umbreon VMAX (Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery) — $73.34

• Set: Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG23/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo VMAX

• Raw Price: $65.00

• PSA 10 Price: $163.50

• Release Date: February 25, 2022

#41: Umbreon ★ (Celebrations: Classic Collection) — $73.23

• Set: Celebrations: Classic Collection

• Card Number: 17/25

• Rarity: Classic Collection

• Raw Price: $74.30

• PSA 10 Price: $301.94

• Release Date: October 08, 2021

#42: Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies) — $72.26

• Set: Evolving Skies

• Card Number: 217/237

• Rarity: Rare Rainbow

• Raw Price: $65.34

• PSA 10 Price: $161.75

• Release Date: August 27, 2021

#43: Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR (Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery) — $72.15

• Set: Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery

• Card Number: GG67/70

• Rarity: Rare Secret

• Raw Price: $78.48

• PSA 10 Price: $186.25

• Release Date: January 20, 2023

#44: Snorlax VMAX (Sword & Shield) — $71.43

• Set: Sword & Shield

• Card Number: 206/216

• Rarity: Rare Rainbow

• Raw Price: $72.76

• PSA 10 Price: $160.75

• Release Date: February 07, 2020

#45: Origin Forme Palkia V (Astral Radiance) — $68.51

• Set: Astral Radiance

• Card Number: 167/216

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $67.50

• PSA 10 Price: $208.89

• Release Date: May 27, 2022

#46: Galarian Slowking V (Chilling Reign) — $68.08

• Set: Chilling Reign

• Card Number: 179/233

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $66.69

• PSA 10 Price: $168.92

• Release Date: June 18, 2021

#47: Pikachu V (Lost Origin Trainer Gallery) — $64.22

• Set: Lost Origin Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG16/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo V

• Raw Price: $70.00

• PSA 10 Price: $233.17

• Release Date: September 09, 2022

#48: Zeraora V (Chilling Reign) — $61.51

• Set: Chilling Reign

• Card Number: 166/233

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $59.40

• PSA 10 Price: $138.06

• Release Date: June 18, 2021

#49: Mimikyu V (Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery) — $61.28

• Set: Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery

• Card Number: TG16/30

• Rarity: Rare Holo V

• Raw Price: $50.91

• PSA 10 Price: $187.11

• Release Date: February 25, 2022

#50: Noivern V (Evolving Skies) — $60.13

• Set: Evolving Skies

• Card Number: 196/237

• Rarity: Rare Ultra

• Raw Price: $49.84

• PSA 10 Price: $183.23

• Release Date: August 27, 2021

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

Market Overview

The Pokémon market remains in a stable, low-volatility uptrend heading into March 2026. TCGIndex’s Game Value Index — which tracks the aggregate marketplace value of one copy of each of the 30,642 cards monitored — currently sits at $698,302.

Key highlights:

• 7-day return: +0.48% (56.01% of cards advanced)

• 30-day return: +2.98%

• 90-day return: +10.67%

• Momentum regime: Neutral (score 57/100)

• Volatility: Low (30-day window)

The 30-day daily % change chart shows a relatively flat but resilient line with only minor pullbacks and a gentle recovery in recent sessions — classic consolidation after the strong 90-day run. Overall, the market feels steady and constructive rather than frothy, with broad participation (over half the cards moving higher in the past week) and no extreme swings.

This paints a picture of a maturing Pokémon TCG investment landscape: positive momentum without the wild volatility seen in prior cycles.

Zero to Hero Challenge – March 2026 Update

The challenge is officially underway with this Japanese promo pair now making up the entire current allocation. Sitting at a clean +73.70% unrealized ROI after just one month, it’s a nice early reminder of the arbitrage and pairing opportunities that still exist in the promo space.

I’ll continue scaling this section toward the 10–20% portfolio target and will keep you posted with each new addition. Next market update drops in April — see you then!

Japanese Promos

This portion of the portfolio focuses exclusively on Japanese promotional cards — a high-value and strategically important niche within the broader Pokémon TCG ecosystem. While I’m still in the early stages here, the long-term target is for this category to make up 10–20% of the overall portfolio.

% of Portfolio: 100.0%
Unrealized ROI: +73.70%

In February, I added two key Japanese promos to the Zero to Hero challenge. What makes the move especially compelling is a clear arbitrage opportunity: both cards came from the exact same limited event.

These promos were exclusively distributed via the “Sealed Battle Promo Card Pack” for “Triplet Beat” Sealed Battle events, starting March 10, 2023, at participating Pokémon Card Gym stores across Japan.

• Event/Set Contents: Players purchase 15 “Triplet Beat” booster packs, build a 40-card deck on-site, and compete in small 4-player tournaments. Winners (and Rock-Paper-Scissors mini-tournament victors) receive 1 random shiny promo card from the pack (Koraidon 049/SV-P or Miraidon 048/SV-P). All participants get Nemona 047/SV-P and Rare Candy promos.

• Limited Manner: Strictly event prizes with finite tournaments—no retail or booster availability. Secondary sealed packs sold out quickly (~$200+ USD).

Last month I acquired the matched PSA 10 pair for a total of $270:

• Miraidon 048/SV-P PSA 10 — $160

• Koraidon 049/SV-P PSA 10 — $110

Collectors who chase these promos almost always want the complete pair from the same event, and they’re typically willing to pay a noticeable premium for it. As the image below shows, the last two matched pairs sold for approximately $470 — delivering an instant unrealized return of roughly 74%.

My standard holding period is 12–24 months, but situations like this don’t appear often. With extremely limited supply and consistent collector demand, this window may not stay open long.

That wraps up this month’s Zero to Hero update. I’m already scouting the next cards to add in March, so keep an eye out for the alert I’ll send the moment they hit the portfolio.

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

BUY ALERT: Miraidon (Sealed Battle Promo)

Status: Buying Now

Conviction Level: High

Target Exit: 12–24 Months

The Asset Snapshot

• Asset: Miraidon | 2023 Japanese SV-P Promo

• Card #: 048/SV-P | Rarity: Sealed Battle Promo

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $160.00

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,432 | Gem Mint Rate: 92%

Background

This promo was exclusively distributed via the “Sealed Battle Promo Card Pack” (シールド戦プロモカードパック) for “Triplet Beat” Sealed Battle events, starting March 10, 2023, at participating Pokémon Card Gym stores across Japan.

• Event/Set Contents: Players purchase 15 “Triplet Beat” booster packs, build a 40-card deck on-site, and compete in small 4-player tournaments. Winners (and Rock-Paper-Scissors mini-tournament victors) receive 1 random shiny promo card from the pack (Koraidon 049/SV-P or Miraidon 048/SV-P). All participants get Nemona 047/SV-P and Rare Candy promos.

• Limited Manner: Strictly event prizes with finite tournaments—no retail or booster availability. Secondary sealed packs sold out quickly (~$200+ USD).

The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)

1. Promo Card Scarcity

Unlike “Chase Cards” in a main set (like a Charizard or Umbreon) that can be pulled as long as booster boxes are being printed, the Miraidon 048/SV-P was tied to a specific tournament window starting March 2023.

• The Fact: Once the “Sealed Battle” event cycle ended in Japan, the primary supply tap was turned off permanently.

• The Reasoning: Most modern cards are “mass-produced,” but Japanese promos—specifically tournament-reward promos—are “limited-distribution” assets. You aren’t competing with millions of packs being ripped at a Big Box Retailer; you are competing for a fixed pool of tournament survivors.

2. The PSA 10 Absorption Phase

In the early days of a promo’s life, supply hits the market from participants looking for a quick flip. We are currently moving past that “supply glut” into the Absorption Phase.

• The Logic: As we transition into the 30th Anniversary era in 2026, serious collectors are “gobbling up” existing PSA 10 slabs to lock them into long-term personal collections.

• The Multiplier: When a card is out-of-print, every PSA 10 that enters a “permanent collection” is effectively removed from the tradable market. This creates a “supply floor” that slowly ratchets the price upward as secondary market availability thins out.

3. Velocity Over “Blue-Chip” Stagnation

Vintage Charizards are iconic, but they are “Large-Cap” assets: they require massive capital for potentially slow, incremental growth.

• The Alpha: Buying a specialized modern promo at $160 gives you a much higher ROI potential over 12–24 months than a $20,000 vintage card does.

• The Exit: It is significantly easier to find a buyer for a $320 unique promo in 2027 than it is to find a buyer for a $30,000 vintage holo. We are playing for velocity and liquidity, which are the two most important factors for a side-hustle portfolio.

Bottom Line: I’m not buying “shiny cardboard.” I’m buying a fixed-supply tournament asset during a window where the general market is distracted by new English sets. In a couple of years, it will be exceedingly difficult to find these cards and you’ll pay a premium. That is how you manufacture alpha.

The Market Data

• Current PSA 10 Floor: $160.00

• Est. Post-Era Value: $320.00+

• Target Profit: +$160 per unit

• Max Risk: -$40 per unit (Based on market floor)

• Liquidity Rating: Moderate (Steady demand for tournament promos)

Execution Instructions

• Where to Buy: Verified eBay sellers with good ratings.

• Check The Eye Appeal: Remember, a PSA 10 is a technical grade, not a guarantee of perfection. Don’t just buy the label; buy the card. Look for centered framing, crisp corner geometry, and edge integrity. If the centering looks 60/40 to your naked eye, it’s a “weak” 10—pass and wait for a 50/50 copy that will command a premium at exit.

• Buying Tip: Make sure it’s the Japanese Promo (double check the writing is in Japanese). There is a version of this artwork in other languages (English, Chinese) which is much less rare.

• The “Pass” Trigger: If the price creeps above $200.00, your margin for the 12-month window is too thin. Pass and wait for the next alert.

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  Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

Every Pokémon card shares a common blueprint. For new collectors and investors, mastering this layout is essential. This guide breaks down the key elements of a modern card, teaching you to identify rarity, set origin, and value indicators at a glance.

Front of the Card — Quick Reference Map

While the design of a standard Pokémon card has evolved, the core layout remains remarkably consistent across eras. Here is a quick-reference guide to a card's front:

• Name — The Pokemon’s Name.

• Stage — Shows where the Pokémon is in its evolution line:

  • Basic

  • Stage 1

  • Stage 2

  • Modern sets also feature EX/GX/V/VMAX/VSTAR labels; think of these as era‑specific “power” versions.

• HP (Hit Points) & Type — Hit points is the amount of damage a Pokémon can withstand before being knocked out, and its Energy type (Fire, Water, Grass, etc.).

• Attacks & Abilities —Primary battle moves & special powers. Each attack shows the Energy cost and damage/effect.

• Card Number —Printed at the bottom (e.g., 029/189). The first number is the card’s position in the set; the second is the total cards in the main set.

• Expansion Symbol —The Expansion Symbol on a Pokémon card identifies the specific expansion set the card belongs to, often featuring a stylized icon or abbreviation with a holographic foil version on rarer cards. This card belongs to Darkness Ablaze.

• Rarity Icon -

  • ● common

  • ◆ uncommon

  • ★ rare

    (Scarlet & Violet introduced new symbols—see the updated icons here.)

• Holo Treatment — The Shiny Finish on Pokemon cards comes in a couple types

  • Non‑holo (no-shine)

  • Regular Holo (shiny art)

  • Reverse Holo (shiny background, normal art)

  • Full Art, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare

Pro Tip: Go to Pokecollector (or a similar site) and look through the different eras and sets to familiarize yourself more with the different types of English and Japanese cards. Focus should be on modern era ( Sword&Shield, Scarlet&Violet, Mega)

Back of the Card — English vs. Japanese

While the front of a Pokémon card carries almost all of the collectible and investment value, the back is mainly used for quick authenticity and language checks.

Modern Pokémon cards feature two distinct back designs depending on their region: the classic blue design found on International (English) cards, and the gold-bordered design exclusive to Japanese cards.

• Japanese back (left): Distinct gold‑toned border/background with different typography and layout around the Poké Ball.

• English (U.S./global) back (right): Blue border and blue swirl background with a central Poké Ball.

These backs are not interchangeable; An English front with a Japanese back (or vice versa) is an instant red flag for a counterfeit. Also watch for off‑color printing, fuzzy text, or incorrect gloss—these are common tells on counterfeits.

Variants & Special Categories (Front‑of‑Card Signals)

Modern sets are defined by a complex hierarchy of card types, featuring unique foiling, textures, and alternate art. Recognizing these distinctions is critical for navigating the market, whether you are assembling a master set or evaluating a card's long-term potential.—here’s your guide to the key ones:

• Reverse Holo: Foil background with non‑foil art window. Each holographic or reverse holographic card typically has a non-holo version which is more common. The holo versions are rare and more valuable.

• Full Art / Ultra Rare: Extended artwork that reaches the edges, often textured; stronger chase tier.

  

• Special / Illustration / Alternate Art: Scene‑style showcases with low pull rates—modern favorites. These are highly collectible.

  

• Secret Rare: Card number higher than the set size (e.g., 205/198) and usually has gold or premium finishes.

  

• Promos: Not found in booster packs. English promos use a black star symbol and “Promo” numbering. Japanese promos use codes like SV-P, S-P, etc.

Quick Condition Check (Pre‑Grade Mindset)

Before deploying capital into raw cards, you must learn to identify the microscopic flaws that can collapse a card's value from $5,000 to $500. Your inspection process should mirror the standards of major grading houses like PSA, CGC, and BGS, focusing strictly on the 'Big Four': Centering, Corners, Edges, and Surface.

• Centering: Even borders front/back; severely off‑center hurts value.

• Corners: Look for whitening or dings—especially on dark borders.

• Edges: Chipping/whitening along the edge is common and detracts from value.

• Surface: Print lines, scratches, dents, holo foil defects; inspect under strong light.

Pro-Tip: Pack‑fresh ≠ perfect. Factory defects happen. Always inspect the front & back.

What Actually Drives Value (The Big Five)

1. Character Popularity – Tier-1 Pokémon (Charizard, Pikachu, Eevee) consistently outperform the market.

2. Scarcity - Defined by difficult pull rates, short print runs, and a low count of Gem Mint copies in existence.

3. Condition — Like in all collectibles, condition is everything. The price gap between a raw card and a PSA 10 can be massive.

4. Art & Story — Value attaches to stunning visuals, first appearances, and renowned illustrators.

5. Set/Era & Language — English and Japanese cards generally have the strongest demand and clearest pricing data.

X-Factors: Unpredictable events that ignite demand, such as tournament wins, new anime releases, or anniversary hype.

Fast Red Flags

Here are some of the biggest, easiest red flags that scream “fake” or “bad condition” the second you see them:

• Front and back language/style don’t match (e.g., English front with Japanese back).

• High-end modern cards (Full Arts/Alt Arts) should have etched texture. If it’s smooth and glossy, it’s likely fake.

• Authentic holos usually have diagonal or complex patterns. Fakes often have a flat, vertical rainbow sheen that washes over the entire card.

• Terrible centering, heavy corner/edge wear, or obvious creases.

• Fakes often look blurry, light blue, or purplish instead of the crisp, dark blue design.

• Price that seems too good to be true.

Your 10-Second Checklist

Whenever you pick up a card, run through this mental workflow:

1. Identify: Scan the Set Symbol and Rarity. Is it a standard card, or a “chase” variant (Full Art, Secret Rare, Illustration Rare)?

2. Authenticate: Check the Back (English vs. Japanese) and the Texture (if it’s a modern hit, does it have ridges?).

3. Inspect: Run the “Big 4” Condition Check—Centering, Corners, Edges, and Surface.

4. Evaluate: Apply the Value Drivers—Is the character popular? Is the population low? Is it a key set?

Safety Check: If you see a smooth surface on a textured card, a “washed out” back, or a suspiciously low price, put it back.

That’s it. You just moved from “guessing” to analyzing. Keep this recap handy, and every listing you browse will start to make sense.

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.

Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment only and is not financial advice. See full legal disclaimers here.

BUY ALERT: Koraidon (Sealed Battle Promo)

Status: Buying Now

Conviction Level: High

Target Exit: 12–24 Months

The Asset Snapshot

• Asset: Koraidon | 2023 Japanese SV-P Promo

• Card #: 049/SV-P | Rarity: Sealed Battle Promo

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $109.99

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 2,808 | Gem Mint Rate: 89%

Background

This promo was exclusively distributed via the “Sealed Battle Promo Card Pack” (シールド戦プロモカードパック) for “Triplet Beat” Sealed Battle events, starting March 10, 2023, at participating Pokémon Card Gym stores across Japan.

• Event/Set Contents: Players purchase 15 “Triplet Beat” booster packs, build a 40-card deck on-site, and compete in small 4-player tournaments. Winners (and Rock-Paper-Scissors mini-tournament victors) receive 1 random shiny promo card from the pack (Koraidon 049/SV-P or Miraidon 048/SV-P). All participants get Nemona 047/SV-P and Rare Candy promos.

• Limited Manner: Strictly event prizes with finite tournaments—no retail or booster availability. Secondary sealed packs sold out quickly (~$200+ USD).

The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)

1. Promo Card Scarcity

Unlike “Chase Cards” in a main set (like a Charizard or Umbreon) that can be pulled as long as booster boxes are being printed, the Koraidon 049/SV-P was tied to a specific tournament window starting March 2023.

• The Fact: Once the “Sealed Battle” event cycle ended in Japan, the primary supply tap was turned off permanently.

• The Reasoning: Most modern cards are “mass-produced,” but Japanese promos—specifically tournament-reward promos—are “limited-distribution” assets. You aren’t competing with millions of packs being ripped at a Big Box Retailer; you are competing for a fixed pool of tournament survivors.

2. The PSA 10 Absorption Phase

In the early days of a promo’s life, supply hits the market from participants looking for a quick flip. We are currently moving past that “supply glut” into the Absorption Phase.

• The Logic: As we transition into the 30th Anniversary era in 2026, serious collectors are “gobbling up” existing PSA 10 slabs to lock them into long-term personal collections.

• The Multiplier: When a card is out-of-print, every PSA 10 that enters a “permanent collection” is effectively removed from the tradable market. This creates a “supply floor” that slowly ratchets the price upward as secondary market availability thins out.

3. Velocity Over “Blue-Chip” Stagnation

Vintage Charizards are iconic, but they are “Large-Cap” assets: they require massive capital for potentially slow, incremental growth.

• The Alpha: Buying a specialized modern promo at $110 gives you a much higher ROI potential over 12–24 months than a $20,000 vintage card does.

• The Exit: It is significantly easier to find a buyer for a $250 unique promo in 2027 than it is to find a buyer for a $30,000 vintage holo. We are playing for velocity and liquidity, which are the two most important factors for a side-hustle portfolio.

Bottom Line: I’m not buying “shiny cardboard.” I’m buying a fixed-supply tournament asset during a window where the general market is distracted by new English sets. In a couple of years, it will be exceedingly difficult to find these cards and you’ll pay a premium. That is how you manufacture alpha.

The Market Data

• Current PSA 10 Floor: $109.99

• Est. Post-Era Value: $210.00+

• Target Profit: +$100 per unit

• Max Risk: -$40 per unit (Based on market floor)

• Liquidity Rating: Moderate (Steady demand for tournament promos)

Execution Instructions

• Where to Buy: Verified eBay sellers with good ratings.

• Check The Eye Appeal: Remember, a PSA 10 is a technical grade, not a guarantee of perfection. Don't just buy the label; buy the card. Look for centered framing, crisp corner geometry, and edge integrity. If the centering looks 60/40 to your naked eye, it’s a "weak" 10—pass and wait for a 50/50 copy that will command a premium at exit.

• Buying Tip: Make sure it’s the Japanese Promo (double check the writing is in Japanese). There is a version of this artwork in other languages (English, Chinese) which is much less rare.

• The “Pass” Trigger: If the price creeps above $140.00, your margin for the 12-month window is too thin. Pass and wait for the next alert.

Final Word: If you’re just starting out, forget vintage. Focus on rare modern cards in high grades. Stay sharp. Collect rare.