While all the focus is currently on vintage Pokémon, I wanted to write a post discussing a series of promos that were released in the Sword & Shield era. They are the “Special Delivery” promos: Special Delivery Pikachu, Special Delivery Bidoof, & Special Delivery Charizard). I don’t hear them discussed often, but they are rare and have appreciated quite a bit in value so I thought they warranted a closer look.

1. Special Delivery Pikachu

The Special Delivery Pikachu Promo, SWSH074, was released to celebrate the Pokémon Center online store’s expansion into Canada. There is a common misconception this promo was strictly limited to Canada. In fact, it was available in both the United States and Canada, despite what the descriptions on grading labels say. However, a version of this card was never released in Japan.

The promotion began on November 9, 2020. To qualify to receive a copy of the Pikachu promo, you were required to make a Pokémon Center purchase of $20 or more while supplies lasted. It was a online gift with purchase, not a tournament prize or mail-in redemption.

The promotion was specifically offered “while supplies last”. I could not find a reliable figures for how many cards were printed, distributed, and ultimately redeemed through qualifying purchases. However, the PSA report lists 13,937 graded copies, giving us a useful starting point in determining the cards scarcity.

2. Special Delivery Bidoof

The second in the “Special Delivery” series was the Special Delivery Bidoof, SWSH177. The distribution method for this card was pretty unique. If you were in the United States or Canada, had a online Pokémon Center account, and were subscribed to the newsletter, you received an email to express interest in the promotion. That email went out July 1, 2021. You were required to follow a link in the email before midnight on July 11, 2021, for a chance to receive a promo code. Codes were emailed to select members. You were mailed a copy of the promo by supplying that code in conjunction with a valid purchase from Pokémon Center. All codes were distributed by September 1, 2021, and were valid until January 1, 2022.

Because of how restrictive the process for distributing this promo was, it’s the rarest of the three “Special Delivery” cards. The official FAQ confirmed that not all customers who “expressed interest” received a code. However, it doesn’t disclose the printed run, the selection rate, or the number of codes issued. But looking at the PSA population counts there are only 4,320 graded Bidoofs, compared to approximately 14,000 Pikachus and 30,000 Charizards.

3. Special Delivery Charizard

The third in the series is the Special Delivery Charizard promo, SWSH075. Artwork for this card was revealed in November 2020. It appeared in a players guide highlighting the Sword & Shield Premium Collection (but this promo was not in that particular product). There were documented incidents where this card was accidentally included in some Pokémon Center shipments, well before the public promotion had begun. This contributed to a gap between the time collectors first learned of the existence of the card and being able to obtain it through an official release. The actual promotion began in 2022 and celebrated the launch of the Pokémon Center online store in the United Kingdom.

The Promotion

The registration period for the Charizard promotion opened on July 11, 2022. Customers in the United States, Canada (excluding Quebec) and the United Kingdom were eligible to participate. Participants registered for a one-time promo code and combined it with a qualifying Pokémon Center purchase to redeem the card. The monetary thresholds were $20 USD, $20 CAD, or £20 GBP and codes were valid through January 1, 2023.

The Special Delivery Charizard has a substantially larger PSA population than either Pikachu or Bidoof. Its promotion included the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, whereas the other two were limited to the United States and Canada. There are approximately seven times as many graded Charizards as Bidoofs. The broader distribution may help explain that difference, while Charizard’s popularity may also have encouraged more collectors to obtain and grade the card. Without official distribution figures, however, we cannot determine how much each factor contributed.

Now let’s look at the total graded populations and gem rates.

PSA Population Reports and Gem Percentages

When looking at the numbers, two things stand out immediately:

1. The PSA 10 population on these is small. Some highly sought after modern cards have tens of thousands of PSA 10 copies. For example, the Moonbreon from Sword and Shield has almost 21,000 copies graded a PSA 10. These promos range from just over 1,000 for the Bidoof to around 4,500 for the Charizard. The limited supply of gem copies is part of the appeal to me.

2. All three have low gem rates, with the Pikachu the lowest at 10%. While the populations can still grow, additional submissions will not automatically translate into a flood of new PSA 10s. If the gem rates remain similar, a meaningful increase in PSA 10 population would require an enormous number of raw cards to be submitted. I’m not convinced enough gem quality copies remain ungraded to support that kind of growth.

I’ve graded these myself, and I remember these cards did have quality issues. Specifically, I remember poorly cut corners and chipping issues on the backs. Those flaws can easily knock an otherwise perfect card from a 10 to a 9. All three also have holographic surfaces, where scratches and other imperfections present potential grading hurdles.

Let’s go card by card.

Special Delivery Bidoof

This promo has the smallest number of PSA 10 graded copies of the trio. With a graded population of 4,320 overall and just 1,023 in PSA 10, the scarcity of the card should grab people’s attention. Its ~23% Gem Rate is extremely low by modern standards and it was the most difficult to obtain through the restrictive newsletter-selection process.

Special Delivery Pikachu

The Pikachu has the lowest gem rate of the three. Of the 13,937 graded copies, only 1,401 received a PSA 10. That’s a gem rate of 10.05%. That’s the kind of grading rate I normally associate with vintage cards, not a modern promo. What makes that figure particularly noteworthy is that collectors typically submit the strongest candidates. They (generally) aren’t paying to grade copies with obvious flaws. Yet even among cards considered worth grading, nearly nine out of ten fell short. The population can still grow, but given it’s a promotion and has such a low gem rate I expect PSA 10 copies to remain relatively scare over time.

Special Delivery Charizard

The Charizard has the largest population of the three, with 30,693 graded copies. However, only 4,502 copies earned a PSA 10, giving it a gem rate of 14.67%. That’s approximately one in seven. While it’s the least scarce of the special delivery cards, 4,502 PSA 10s is still low for a modern card. For comparison, another popular promo, Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat, has approximately 48,000 PSA 10 copies. That’s more than 10x as many. The Charizard may be the most accessible of the three, but that does not make it abundant by comparison to promos of that scale.

Current Prices

Here is a chart of the current market prices for the “Special Delivery” trio:

As you can see, these are not cheap. These cards have appreciated substantially over the past couple of years, with PSA 10 copies of all three now priced above $2,000. Given the low gem rates, I would prefer to buy an already graded copy than purchase them raw and attempt to grade one myself. PSA grading standards seem to be tougher than ever and I think it would be a long shot to find one in gem condition. The cost of acquiring cards and paying fees can quickly erode any potential savings, while the current grading backlog at PSA means a lengthy wait with no guarantee of securing a 10.

In a previous post, I predicted that modern card prices could cool after PSA closed its Value and Bulk grading tiers. As the chart shows, Special Delivery Bidoof’s PSA 10 price rose sharply into July but has since begun to pull back. If that trend continues, it could present an opportunity to acquire these cards at an attractive price.

Wrapping Up

I wanted to highlight the Special Delivery trio because these low-population promos have many of the qualities I look for in cards that I believe will continue to appreciate over the long term. The appeal is the unique combination of popular characters, holographic finishes, restricted availability, and low gem rates that make PSA 10 copies considerably harder to come by than the raw copies themselves.

These cards were distributed via specific promotions that have long since ended. That means any new PSA 10 supply would need to come from existing copies. If collector interest in these continues to grow while PSA 10s become increasingly locked away in permanent collections, I expect finding gem mint copies to become increasingly difficult.

Being bullish on these cards doesn’t make me a buyer at any price. They have already had substantial appreciation, and I would rather wait for a meaningful pullback than chase those gains. Specifically, I’m looking for an attractive dip in PSA 10 prices as a potential buying opportunity. If I see a price I believe offers a good entry point, I’ll send an alert to paying subscribers of the newsletter with details.

This list ranks English language cards from the Scarlet & Violet era by their PSA 10 value, excluding Black Star promos. All prices are in U.S. dollars and reflect a price snapshot taken on September 30, 2026.

Prismatic Evolutions claims eight of the top 25 spots, cementing it’s place as the era’s strongest set in my opinion, although 151 isn’t far behind. Charizard is the most represented individual character with three entries.

The biggest surprise is the number of Black White Rares. Four make the top 25, most of them near the top of the list. I’m generally less enthusiastic about the gold/red/black/white rares at the very end of sets. In my experience, they haven’t appreciated as consistently as Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares. However the Black White Rares found in Black Bolt and White Flare have caught my attention.

Population data: I want to include population data and GEM rates in future lists. I’m still working on a reliable way to collect those figures without looking them up individually on PSA’s website.

A note on pricing: Pricecharting is my primary source for collecting PSA 10 values. Where data is incomplete, I look for recent secondary market sales as a cross check. Treat these figures as estimates, and prices change every day.

#1: Umbreon ex — PSA 10: $5,610

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 161/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#2: Magikarp — PSA 10: $3,948

• Set / number: Paldea Evolved · 203/193

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: June 9, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#3: Mew ex — PSA 10: $3,163

• Set / number: Paldean Fates · 232/091

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 26, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#4: Seismitoad — PSA 10: $1,925

• Set / number: Black Bolt · 105/086

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#5: Victini (Black Bolt) — PSA 10: $1,513

• Set / number: Black Bolt · 171/086

• Rarity: Black White Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#6: Sylveon ex — PSA 10: $1,475

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 156/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#7: Zekrom ex (172/086) — PSA 10: $1,450

• Set / number: Black Bolt · 172/086

• Rarity: Black White Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#8: Charizard ex — PSA 10: $1,447

• Set / number: 151 · 199/165

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#9: Victini — PSA 10: $1,386

• Set / number: White Flare · 172/086

• Rarity: Black White Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting · Card details

#10: Reshiram ex — PSA 10: $1,177

• Set / number: White Flare · 173/086

• Rarity: Black White Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#11: Espeon ex — PSA 10: $1,109

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 155/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#12: Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex — PSA 10: $1,080

• Set / number: Destined Rivals · 231/182

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: May 30, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#13: Vaporeon ex — PSA 10: $1,015

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 149/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#14: Pikachu ex (238/191) — PSA 10: $937

• Set / number: Surging Sparks · 238/191

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: November 8, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#15: Raichu — PSA 10: $898

• Set / number: Paldea Evolved · 211/193

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: June 9, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#16: Oshawott — PSA 10: $866

• Set / number: White Flare · 105/086

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#17: Charizard ex — PSA 10: $785

• Set / number: Obsidian Flames · 223/197

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: August 11, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#18: Charizard ex — PSA 10: $778

• Set / number: Paldean Fates · 234/091

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 26, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#19: Tyranitar — PSA 10: $778

• Set / number: Paldea Evolved · 222/193

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: June 9, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#20: Leafeon ex — PSA 10: $758

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 144/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#21: Greninja ex — PSA 10: $750

• Set / number: Twilight Masquerade · 214/167

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: May 24, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#22: Glaceon ex — PSA 10: $687

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 150/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#23: Groudon — PSA 10: $645

• Set / number: Paradox Rift · 199/182

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: November 3, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#24: Roaring Moon ex — PSA 10: $642

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 162/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#25: Flareon ex — PSA 10: $629

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 146/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

The second half of the list, numbers #26-#50. Looking over this portion of the list, one thing worth noticing is we get a good spread of the different sets across the Scarlet & Violet era. Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares dominate, with just one gold Hyper Rare making the cut. While we saw the Black White Rares in the top 10, the gold cards simply don’t perform as well. It took Pikachu to get it to barely slide in the top 50.

Population data: I want to include population data and GEM rates in future lists. I’m still working on a reliable way to collect those figures without looking them up individually on PSA’s website.

A note on pricing: Pricecharting is my primary source for collecting PSA 10 values. Where data is incomplete, I look for recent secondary market sales as a cross check. Treat these figures as estimates, and prices change every day.

#26: Charmander — PSA 10: $619

• Set / number: 151 · 168/165

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#27: Blastoise ex — PSA 10: $601

• Set / number: 151 · 200/165

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#28: Jolteon ex — PSA 10: $600

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 153/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#29: Eevee ex — PSA 10: $528

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 167/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#30: Gastly — PSA 10: $523

• Set / number: Temporal Forces · 177/162

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: March 22, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#31: Latias ex — PSA 10: $495

• Set / number: Surging Sparks · 239/191

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: November 8, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#32: Zekrom ex — PSA 10: $481

• Set / number: Black Bolt · 166/086

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#33: Squirtle — PSA 10: $481

• Set / number: 151 · 170/165

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#34: Cynthia’s Garchomp ex — PSA 10: $460

• Set / number: Destined Rivals · 232/182

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: May 30, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#35: Zoroark — PSA 10: $460

• Set / number: White Flare · 143/086

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#36: Samurott — PSA 10: $450

• Set / number: White Flare · 107/086

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#37: Reshiram ex — PSA 10: $450

• Set / number: White Flare · 166/086

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#38: Venusaur ex — PSA 10: $435

• Set / number: 151 · 198/165

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#39: Squirtle — PSA 10: $403

• Set / number: Stellar Crown · 148/142

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: September 13, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#40: Zapdos ex — PSA 10: $402

• Set / number: 151 · 202/165

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#41: Misty’s Psyduck — PSA 10: $390

• Set / number: Destined Rivals · 193/182

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: May 30, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#42: Gardevoir ex — PSA 10: $386

• Set / number: Paldean Fates · 233/091

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 26, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#43: Pikachu ex — PSA 10: $368

• Set / number: Surging Sparks · 247/191

• Rarity: Hyper Rare

• Released: November 8, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#44: Ethan’s Ho-Oh ex — PSA 10: $368

• Set / number: Destined Rivals · 230/182

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: May 30, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#45: Haxorus — PSA 10: $357

• Set / number: Black Bolt · 147/086

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: July 18, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting · Card details

#46: Lillie’s Clefairy ex — PSA 10: $354

• Set / number: Journey Together · 184/159

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: March 28, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

#47: Eevee — PSA 10: $345

• Set / number: Twilight Masquerade · 188/167

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: May 24, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#48: Alakazam ex — PSA 10: $326

• Set / number: 151 · 201/165

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: September 22, 2023

Sources: PriceCharting

#49: Bulbasaur — PSA 10: $320

• Set / number: Stellar Crown · 143/142

• Rarity: Illustration Rare

• Released: September 13, 2024

Sources: PriceCharting

#50: Ceruledge ex — PSA 10: $319

• Set / number: Prismatic Evolutions · 147/131

• Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Released: January 17, 2025

Sources: PriceCharting

Read more

The cleanest story for the month of August is not that the Pokémon TCG market is rolling over, the broad market is still advancing. However, some of the speculative excess is being wrung out of modern sealed product and high-end modern chase cards.

The overall market remains positive. But, momentum is starting to slow down. TCGIndex’s Pokémon Market Value Index currently sits at $1,013,161, with the basket of cards increasing 1.86% over the past 30 days and 7.11% over the past 90 days. The index currently includes 32,272 cards. 56% of the cards in the basket are advancing, Momentum is Neutral (56/100), with moderate volatility.

Compare those returns against July when the 30-day gain was 2.46% and the 90-day gain was 9.79%. So we still have a market that is going up, but the rate of appreciation is starting to cool off.

Key Highlights

TCGIndex recently did a study and found 169 of 191 modern sets were positive over the past 90 days, but vintage is outperforming modern. Vintage sets averaged a +20.2% increase, mid-era +17.0%, and modern +9.6%. This indicates a “rotation” into older cards as opposed to a modern market crash.

I’m actually excited at the prospect of a focus shifting toward vintage cards. The run-up in modern Pokémon has been so extreme over the last 12 months, that it’s been difficult to find opportunities to get into great cards because the price isn’t right. A couple of years ago I was buying Alternate Arts from Evolving Skies between $100 and $300 and spending $20 to grade them. Now many of those cards sell for $1,000-$4,000 in a PSA 10. Many modern Japanese promos I own have jumped 10x in value. A Special Illustration Rare in a new set is released and the PSA 10 is going for $4k. That makes it difficult to buy in size. If you invest in a card like the Charizard from Phantasmal Flames or the Pikachu from Ascended Heros, you’r spending $3,000-$4,000. I can see those cards dropping 50% if the market cools. It’s caused me to shy away from chasing big modern cards for the time being.

Sealed Product Weakness?

One of the main stories of the month is apparent weakness in the prices of sealed product. According to TCGPlayer, tracked sales show booster boxes were around $600 in late June, $470 at the start of August, and $400 by the end of the month. That’s a 33% drop from the late June level. The standard Destined Rivals ETB dropped even more. It went from $170 in mid-July to $110 by the end of August. That’s a decline of -35% over that period. TCGPlayer attributed the weakness to the large wave of Destined Rivals ETB reprints.

The weakness wasn’t limited to Destined Rivals. Journey Together booster boxes were selling at $315 on August 1, but had dropped to $250 by August 30th. A roughly -20% decline on the month. It’s not isolated to a single reprint event. We might be seeing the early signs of some froth coming out of the sealed product market that had built up over the Scarlet & Violet era as prices continue to go higher and higher.

The price of Pitch Black is another sign buyers are not as willing to assign a huge premium to new products (that will probably change with the 30th anniversary). Prices for Pitch Black booster boxes have fallen from $193 at the beginning of August to $179. The MSRP on these boxes was $160, so there isn’t much of a premium. Its nowhere near the difference we were seeing in prices between retail and secondary markets for sealed product earlier in the year.

At the same time, some sealed product is holding up reasonably well. Prismatic Evolutions ETBs were basically flat on the month at $160 or so. Surging Sparks booster boxes bounced around $290-$310 in the month of August, basically unchanged. That’s telling me the selloff is selective. Aggressive reprints, fresh supply, and unpopular sets seem to be the main drivers.

Early 30th Celebration Pull Rates & Prices

The 30th Celebration products hit retailers on September 16 and we’re already starting to see early pull rates from pack openings. The pull rates appear much more generous than what we’ve seen in standard sets. This is expected of an anniversary release. That matters when you are evaluating singles. There are going to be far more copies of the chase cards in this set than there are for comparable chase cards from sets like Prismatic Evolutions or Ascended Heros.

Here are the early pull rates:

• Holo Pikachu (30-artist subset) — 1 in Every Pack (100%)

• Illustration Rare — 1 in 6 Packs

• Classic Reprint — 1 in 10 Packs

• Special Illustration Rare — 1 in 19 Packs

• FUR Rare — 1 in 100 Packs

• RGB Rate — 1 in 4,083 Packs

Here is some early prices of the top individual cards from the 30th Celebration release

1. Mew Ex #158/128 — $180

2. Mewtwo Ex #157/128 — $130

3. Pikachu Ex (Night) #150/128 — $140

4. Pikachu Ex (Day) #149/128 — $100

5. Charizard #4/102— $169

1. Mewtwo Ex #151/128 — $100

2. Mew Ex #152/128 — $180

3. Gengar #154/128 — $140

   

The RGB rares are the most expensive cards in the set, due to the rarity I assume. They have pull rates of approximately 1 in 4,000 packs. The prices of these are all over the place. I’m seeing them sell anywhere from $3,000 to $5,000.

My Read on the Market

The market still looks strong. Even though the sealed product market is showing some weakness, Target was sold out of 30th Celebration products on the first day.

Early resales on secondary markets have ETBs going for over $150. I think the biggest risks right now are sellers sitting on too much sealed product in sets that aren’t in high demand (Pitch Black) or are suffering from large reprints (Destined Rivals). I think if reselling stops being as profitable and sellers can’t get cards graded for long periods of time because of the backlog at PSA, it could weigh down the market. But that could also provide opportunities to get into cards that have frankly risen too high in price too fast. Overall, Pokémon cards will continue to be a money making endeavor as long as you make sure to hold highly graded cards at the right prices.

Read more

Today PSA announced a new “Standard” grading tier at $59.99 per card. This is $20 cheaper than the previous lowest tier at $79.99 per card. The service will become available on September 14 and has an estimated turnaround time of 90-100 business days. It will insure cards valued up to $1,000.

This is not a replacement for the existing “Value” tiers. PSA stated in their announcement that the “Value” level of service will remain paused for the time being. The “Standard” tier is an intermediate grading service PSA is opening while it works through it’s current backlog. They indicated additional lower priced service levels will return in phases. These new “Standard” submissions will be processed after already existing “Value” and “Bulk” orders. That helps explain the long 90-100 business day turn around time despite the $60 per card price.

The $79.99 Regular Tier renamed “Priority”

PSA also indicated the $79.99 per card “Regular” tier has been renamed “Priority”. Turn around times for the “Priority” service level remains 70-80 business days and has a maximum insured value of $1,500. This is mostly a name change. Nothing else is materially different.

Express Gets Considerably More Expensive

Express pricing has been increased to $199 per card. The estimated turn around time is still 20-30 business days and maximum insured stays at $2,500. PSA states the price increase was necessary to keep demand from overwhelming the current capacity.

Walk-Through Is Renamed Premier

The newly named “Premier” service level will cost $599 per card. For those that want it fast, the turnaround time is 7-10 business days. The max insured value on cards is $10,000. To reiterate, this is purely a service name change.

Above is a table of the complete breakdown of PSA’s current service levels. The PSA backlog is improving, but its still enormous. The current active backlog is still approximately 10 million cards. The willingness to open a $60 tier suggests they feel things are improving, but they clearly aren’t comfortable enough to open up the bulk and value tiers. This is still a big improvement from 2021. I graded very few cards, but when I did I paid $150. And that was the cheapest service level for 12-15 months.

PSA Now Has A Grading Facility In Europe

Starting September 15, TCG collectors in the EU can submit their cards directly to PSA’s Frankfurt facility. Frankfurt will offer all service levels for cards, as well as packs and autographs. This is a big boost for European collectors because they no long have to deal with US international shipping and fees for PSA submissions.

My Take

It’s an encouraging sign PSA is already bringing back cheaper service levels. It suggests the backlog is moving in the right direction. In 2021, it took nearly a year and a half for prices to return to this level. But at this point I’m more concerned about the turn around time than the price.

A 90-100 business day turnaround is a long time to wait. Consider this scenario: You’re trying to land a PSA 10 of a card. You send it in, wait four to five months for it to come back and its a 9. You then have to sell it, buy another copy, resubmit, and start the clock all over again. That process could easily take a year or more. At some point it becomes far more attractive to buy the PSA 10 already graded.

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, long turnaround times can hurt the market because collectors lose interest when they can’t turn over inventory quickly enough. I saw that dynamic play out in 2021. There are already some early signs of the market cooling. Certain sealed products are down 40% from their highs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some softening in modern graded Pokemon cards as well. It’s completely normal given the run up over the last couple of years. For now, with a $59.99 per card price and a 90-100 business day turnaround, I’ll probably continue targeting cards that are already graded. If either grading fees come down or turnaround time improve, I’ll reassess.

Read more

The Lead: Rumored Destined Rivals Reprint Hitting The Market

One of the biggest stories in Pokémon land this week was a rumored reprint of Destined Rivals. The Pokémon Company hasn’t publicly announced a reprint or disclosed the size of any new print run, so it’s difficult to separate rumor from fact. What we do know is that Walmart has been restocking Destined Rivals ETBs, Target briefly restocked booster boxes, and I’ve seen freshly sealed cases popping up on Ebay.

The secondary market for sealed product has reacted negatively to the news. Booster boxes are down nearly 40% from their highs, and regular ETBs have seen a correction from the $200+ prices we saw earlier in the summer. The Pokémon Center ETBs have held up considerably better, but that’s expected because they’re more exclusive.

The singles market is beginning to feel it as well, but the correction in individual cards has been much smaller. Most of the major chase cards down 5-15%. That might be because there is a lag between a product restock, the packs being opened, those cards being graded, and finally hitting the market. It also might be because PSA is basically closed off for most cards at the moment. Either way, the probability of a flood of new PSA 10s anytime soon is low. But keep that in the back of your mind. Once PSA clears its backlog and value-tier grading returns, some of these newly pulled cards could start showing up in larger numbers.

The important takeaway is that Destined Rivals hasn’t suddenly become a bad set. Booster boxes are still trading well above MSRP even after a large correction, and new retail drops are selling out quickly. It’s just the scarcity premium compressing. It should be a constant reminder to readers of this publication that a product can look scarce right up until Pokémon decides to print more of it. You never really know what they will do.

Quick Hits

More 30th Celebration Classics Revealed

Pokémon revealed three additional cards for the 30th Celebration Collection:

• Crystal Lugia from Aquapolis

• Dark Tyranitar from Ex Team Rocket Returns

• Magikarp from Paldea Evolved

One interesting detail: the English Crystal Lugia isn’t an exact reproduction of the original. The e-Reader logo is gone, and some of the text and formatting have changed.

The 30th anniversary set is pulling desirable cards from different generations of the hobby, not just leaning on reprints of the Base Set. I don’t expect these reprints to materially affect prices of the originals, but they should make the 30th Celebration pretty compelling to collect. Pull Rates will play a large factor how high prices run on these cards. Until I see the full set and rarity of each card, it’s difficult to know what’s actually worth investing in.

Last Call of the 2026 Worlds Pikachu

The 2026 Worlds Pikachu promo is being distributed through select GameStop, Hot Topic, and Best Buy stores with a qualifying purchase through August 30th.

There is a much scarcer “Winner” stamped version awarded to winners at Pokémon League Worlds Celebration events. From an investment perspective, the distinction between those two versions is important. The regular card is widely distributed and the equivalent card from last year trades between $5-$20 raw. The “Winner” stamp version is much rarer.

I pulled the pop report for the 2025 version. Only 1,073 copies of the “Winner” variant have been graded, with a staggering low population of 77 PSA 10s. They’re difficult to find and PSA 10s trade around $3k. I’ll probably end up grabbing the PSA 9.

Don’t overpay for the standard promo. It’s being given away with purchases and isn’t rare. The “Winner” stamped copies are much more interesting from a price appreciation perspective. That is most likely the one you want for an investment. For a PC, either is fine.

Japanese MEGA x MEGA Parade Set To Be Released In February

Japan’s upcoming High Class Pack will be called MEGA x MEGA Parade and is scheduled to be released in Feb 2027.

If you aren’t familiar with Japanese High Class Sets, think of them as Pokémon Japan’s annual premium releases. The packs typically contain more cards than standard Japanese booster packs, including a guaranteed hit. These sets traditionally reprint popular cards from the previous year while adding a large number of secret rares and new alternate artwork. Terastal Festival ex was the High Class Set from the Scarlet & Violet era, which heavily fed into the popular Prismatic Evolutions.

The timing is a bit unusual. These sets are normally released in November or December. This one is apparently being pushed to make room for September’s 30th Anniversary release.

That’s it for this week.

This set is the first expansion in the Mega Evolution series and was released on September 26th, 2025. It’s been almost a full year since its release. In the future I will write these about 6 months after a set becomes available, but this gives us plenty of data to work from. This set includes the English prints of cards primarily from the Japanese expansions Mega Brave and Mega Symphonia (reviews coming soon). Here is a quick snapshot of the set:

The set breaks down like this. The set is 188 cards, 132 in the numbered set and 56 Secret Rares. The Secret Rare breakdown is as follows

• 22 Illustration Rare

• 22 Ultra Rare

• 10 Special Illustration Rare

• 2 Mega Hyper Rare

Browse This Set: View All 188 Mega Evolution Cards Here

Introduction of Mega Hyper Rare

Pokémon introduced a new rarity type with the release of this expansion, the “Mega Hyper Rare”. Gold cards are not new. Sword & Shield featured gold “Secret Rares”, while Scarlet & Violet renamed the top gold rarity “Hyper Rare”. Despite sitting at the top of the rarity ladder, these cards generally didn’t attract the same collector demand as Sword & Shield alternate arts or Scarlet & Violet Special Illustration Rares. They were full-art cards with gold backgrounds and borders. Despite having pull rates in line with the Special Illustration Rare inserts, gold “Hyper Rares” were not the most desirable cards in those sets. Most of the collector demand was concentrated on the Special Illustration Rares or Alternative Arts. It’s counterintuitive because while they had the highest rarity, they were worth considerably less than the most desirable SIR inserts. I didn’t go heavy into buying these in the past because they simply didn’t perform as well on an ROI basis.

The new Mega Hyper Rare retain the all-gold concept of their predecessors, but differ in that they have a gold-etched holographic design and alternate artwork (where Hyper Rares were gold treatments of the Pokémon ex or Trainer cards so the artwork wasn’t unique). They also have their own rarity symbol. Mega Evolution has two of these MHRs - Mega Gardevoir ex and Mega Lucario ex. Pokémon appears to be repositioning these as “true” chase cards instead of a premium treatment of a card. These are extremely difficult to pull. For Mega Evolution, it’s 1 in 35 booster boxes. But it remains to be seen if these will perform better than the gold cards from previous eras.

Top Cards By Price

Below are the top 10 cards ranked by current market price. You can see from the table that the list is dominated by the Special Illustration Rares and the Mega Hyper Rares we just discussed. When cards first hit the market, there is a “release premium” for the top cards. We are nearly a year from that release, and that premium has largely dissipated from the market. Every single card in the top ten is below its release price, with 4 of them down over 60%. This is why I stress waiting for this premium to disappear. You cannot take an immediate 60% haircut in the price you paid and expect to make money. It ties your capital up far too long waiting for the price to recover, when your goal should be turning over cards for profit.

Mega Latias, the Mega Hyper Rares, and Lillie’s Determination took the sharpest hits. This isn’t a surprise to me. In my experience trainers often have some of the steepest post release drawdowns and as I discussed I’m still skeptical of the premium the gold rares are selling for. Mega Latias has declined the most which is a bit of a surprise since Latias has a real following and is featured in one of the most expensive and sought after cards from the Sun & Moon era.

Pull Rates

The Mega Evolution pull rates are in line with what we saw during the Scarlet & Violet era until we get to the very top. Illustration Rares and Ultra Rares are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 packs respectively, while the Special Illustration Rares are 1 in 101 packs. That isn’t particularly high for modern Pokémon. The real outliers are the Mega Hyper Rares. TCGPlayer estimates pulling a copy once in every 1,260 packs. That means to pull a specific MHR, you’re looking at ripping 2,520 packs. That amounts to 35 booster boxes for any MHR and 70 booster boxes for a specific one (on average). At $6/pack, that’s $7,560 in pack purchases to pull one.

The extreme rarity of the “Mega Hyper Rare” Lucario and Gardevoir didn’t protect them from a steep drop in price since they were first released. The Mega Lucario fell from $605 to $231 and Mega Gardevoir went from $562 to $198. Even though they are exceptionally difficult pulls, they are both down over 60% since September of 2025. An important lesson in Pokémon TCG, the pull rates will tell you something about the long term supply and graded populations, but they don’t always tell you if the card has the correct value in the market.

PSA Population & Gem Rates

Let’s take a look at the Pop Report and Gem Rates for the top cards in the set. The first thing that sticks out is the ridiculously low gem rates for the Mega Hyper Rares. The Mega Lucario is only assigned a PSA 10 grade 27% of the time and the Mega Gardevoir only 22.4% of the time.

The GEM rates for the Mega Hyper Rares are low, real low. I tried to research what the common issues were to cause the grading to be so difficult. The gold etching on these cards is new. Was it problems with the gold or something else like centering or cut quality? English cards are notorious for quality control issues compared to their Japanese counterparts which typically gem at a very high rate.

The gold treatment itself seems like it could be an issue. I used the Japanese versions as a control. Japanese cards typically don’t have the centering and corner issues that often occur in English printed cards. Their quality control in Japan is second to none.

However, the same pattern does exist in the Japanese sets, although it’s not as severe. The Mega Brave Mega Ultra Rares currently have a gem rate of 53% compared to 78% for the set overall. For Mega Symphonia, it’s 46% for the Mega Ultra Rares vs. 82% for the set. The English printed Mega Hyper Rares are gemming at roughly half the rate of their Japanese counterparts. This suggests that gold-etching itself creates grading difficulties, while the typical English production quality compounds the problem.

From what I can gather, there are centering issues on the English prints. Collector posts repeatedly show images of Lucario and Gardevoir MHRs with visibly poor centering, along with reports of surface imperfections and print lines.

Where Mega Evolution Stands Now

It’s been almost a year since the set was released and we know considerably more about it today than when it first hit the shelves. The initial hype premium has largely disappeared and all of the current Top 10 cards are trading considerably below their early prices. The Mega Hyper Rares are exceptionally difficult to pull and the PSA pop reports show they are also exceptionally difficult to grade.

The most important point I can emphasize is that scarcity and value are not the same thing. Mega Lucario and Mega Gardevoir are a one in 1,260 pack pull, yet the raw value of the cards has dropped by more than 60%. That’s why I stress waiting. Waiting gives you information you don’t have when a set first launches. How much of the initial hype survived? How big did the population grow? Does a card’s rarity translate into real value appreciation?

In my experience, base sets in modern Pokémon eras haven’t typically performed well from a price appreciation standpoint. The biggest sets tend to be the ones with an unusually strong chase card lineup, a major theme, or Pokémon characters that attract the highest collector demand. Mega Evolution doesn’t really have that advantage. Lucario, Gardevoir and Latias all have legitimate collector followings, but the set is missing most of the hobby's biggest demand drivers. There is no Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo, or Eevee to drive the set’s popularity. That doesn’t mean Mega Evolution is a bad set, I like some of the chase cards. But I’m not sure if the rarity alone will make these cards major long-term winners.

That’s it for Part 1. Part 2 of this article for paid subscribers will be dropping later this week. I’ll look at replacement cost calculations, whether it makes sense to grade or buy, liquidity, current entry points, and finally rank the PSA 10s I’m actually putting money into.

The Lead: Pokémon Celebratory Fanfare Promo Reveal

Pokémon revealed the 2026 celebratory fanfare promo, making it the sixth version of the annual promotional card awarded to competitive players who earn enough Championship Points during the season. The artwork traditionally features Pikachu alongside other Pokémon that were important in that year’s competitive scene.

The series began in 2021 and for most of its history the Japanese versions have been the ones collectors and investors chased. In 2025, Pokémon expanded outside of Asia through the Ace Trainer rewards program. 2026 is only the second year Pokémon distributed an English version of the card.

Looking at the pop reports, PSA 10 populations on the Celebratory Fanfare promos are remarkably small, even compared with difficult to pull Special Illustration Rares.

The PSA 10 pop count for each year is approximately:

• 2021: 884

• 2022: 2,241

• 2023: 685

• 2024: 994

What I like about these promos is that they aren’t a card Pokémon can endlessly reprint or push into the market through booster packs or additional product releases. To receive one, you actually had to qualify as a competitive player. That restriction has led to an unusually small population of PSA 10s, yet they can be surprisingly affordable when/if you can find them on the secondary market.

Quick Hits

First Partner Series 3 Launches

I’ve written about the First Partner series in previous posts. The final nine promos released on August 7 at an MSRP of $14.99. Along with the release came videos on social media of people fighting over them at Target and other retailers.

Brief commercial break: if fighting over $15 boxes at Target so you can make a few dollars per box after platform fees isn’t your idea of investing, become a paid subscriber. It’s much easier to make money than this.

On a per box basis, Series 3 is cheaper than the previous series. Looks like you can pick them up for between $25-$35 on the secondary market. My guess is the PSA pause is a major reason. There simply isn’t as much demand when you can’t get the cards graded. With “Value” tiers paused, there’s less incentive for investors and collectors to buy boxes specifically to grade the promos. I’m not sure when I’ll be a buyer here. I need more clarity around PSA Value-tier pricing and turnaround times before buying a bunch of cards that would just sit around waiting to be graded.

Pokémon Continues to Reveal The 30th Celebration Set

We got our first look at the Day & Night Pikachu Special Illustration Rare pair. These will be available in 30th Celebration booster packs and ETB’s beginning September 16th. We don’t know the pull rates yet, but regardless of the difficulty, this pair will be extremely popular with collectors.

30th Celebration booster packs also contain a special group of 30 different Pikachu cards, each illustration done by a different artist. One will come in every booster pack, and each features a fireworks foil layer printed across the card. So far, 19 of the 30 cards from the Japanese set and 4 of the cards from the English set have been revealed.

Because one of the 30 inserts is guaranteed in every booster pack, the total raw population could reach tens of millions of cards. That volume, combined with the pause in PSA grading makes me hesitant to accumulate too aggressively. I’m going to let the market dictate when and how to invest in these. Individually, they may not become especially valuable, but a complete PSA 10 set could command a meaningful premium.

Storm Emeralda Card Watch

There is now some early price data on Storm Emeralda and as expected, the set is dominated by Rayquaza. Collector interest in this expansion is massively concentrated in the Rayquaza Gold and the Special Art Rare.

The Top Cards By Price:

• Mega Rayquaza Gold: $1,127.45

• Mega Rayquaza ex Special Art Rare: $632.48

• Raikou ex Special Art Rare: $75.00

• Mega Rayquaza ex Super Rare: $50.00

• Zinnia’s Trust Special Art Rare: $35.75

The two top Rayquaza cards are in a completely different universe compared to the rest of the set. The Gold is 15x the price of Raikou (who is a popular character), while the Special Art Rare is more than 8x.

The English versions of the cards are rumored to be released in the Delta Reign expansion when it releases in November. I expect we’ll see a similar concentration of value, with the Rayquaza chase cards commanding a premium over everything else in the set.

Coming Soon

Planning for the complete 30th Celebration buying guide - Every product, cost-per-pack comparisons and which promos may justify paying up for.

Market Timing For Buying Graded Cards - With grading paused, I’ll explain my framework for buying already graded cards (hint: it’s not the first copies to hit the market).

A Mega Evolution set and buying review - The top cards, price charts and whether we are at reasonable entry points.

In a recent weekly update, I mentioned an article reporting that McDonald’s had teased another Pikachu collaboration promo coming in 2026. This article also referenced a similar promotion that ran in 2025. Not knowing much about how past McDonald’s collaborations perform in the market, I decided to dig into the 2025 release. I found a much crazier story than I expected, even by Pokémon standards.

The Original Promotion

In August 2025, McDonald’s Japan announced a Pokémon themed “Happy Set” promotion set to begin on August 8. Each “Happy Set” included one of nine Pokémon toys and for three days (August 9, 10, and 11) customers would also receive a two-card Pokémon pack with each qualifying purchase.

Each pack contained one guaranteed Pikachu promo & one randomly selected card featuring Sprigatito, Fuecoco, Quaxly, Ralts or Riolu

The featured Pikachu card, numbered 020/M-P and illustrated by Yuu Nishida, shows Pikachu with a tray of food and a McDonald’s logo stamped on the right side of the card (see image above). The most important detail was that Pikachu was not randomly inserted. Every promotional pack contained one.

McDonald’s asked customers to purchase no more than five “Happy Sets” during the card distribution period. The moment they had to say that, you knew things weren’t going to end well. The company also discouraged purchases made for resale and asked customers not to order more food than they could eat. Needless to say, those precautions weren’t enough. The promotion was immediately overwhelmed.

Collectors and resellers lined up outside restaurants, and participating locations quickly exhausted their supply. Japanese media reported the promotional cards had effectively sold out on the first day. Photos circulated of uneaten food discarded near McDonald’s locations, apparently left by customers who were primarily interested in the cards. McDonald’s later apologized and said it would consider stronger restrictions for future promotions. The toy promotion continued, but the card giveaway ended as soon as it began.

The Card Initially Appeared Scarce

During the launch, the card genuinely appeared scarce. Scheduled for only three days, the promotion was limited to Japan and the stores ran out almost immediately. International collectors had to purchase the card through Japanese resellers, making people believe it was difficult to obtain. All of these factors combined to create the appearance of scarcity.

But several details hinted that the eventual supply could be overwhelmingly large:

1. The cards were distributed nationwide in Japan

2. Every pack contained a guaranteed copy of the Pikachu

3. Customers could purchase up to 5 Happy Sets each

4. The card was inexpensive enough to acquire in quantity

The chaotic release restricted access to the card. It was initially difficult to obtain because demand overwhelmed the promotion, not because a small number of copies existed.

Cards Flooded into PSA

After the promotion had ended, enormous quantities of the Pikachu promo were submitted for grading. Professional grading takes time. This process creates a lag between a card’s release and when meaningful numbers of PSA 10 copies begin reaching the secondary market. That means initial PSA 10 copies and prices can dramatically overstate both the end-state value and rarity of a card. This McDonald’s promo is one of the most extreme examples of this I’ve seen.

By the beginning of 2026, roughly six months after the promotion began, PSA reported it had graded over 220,000 copies of the card. That makes it the most graded Pokémon card of the 2020s, more than twice as many PSA submissions as the Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat promo which ranks second at roughly 115,000 graded copies.

And the population has continued to climb. The latest pop report shows 323,162 total submissions, with an astonishing 282,967 copies receiving a GEM MINT 10. Those numbers don’t include raw copies and cards graded by CGC or Beckett. I can’t remember ever seeing a modern Pokémon card with a graded population that large. To put it in perspective examining two popular modern cards, the Umbreon VMAX from Evolving skies and the Charizard EX from 151 from Scarlet & Violet, have 21,378 PSA 10s and 28,316 PSA 10s respectively. The McDonald’s Pikachu has nearly 10 times as many PSA 10s as either one of them.

What Happened To The Price

The rumor is that early card and sealed packs commanded huge premiums ( into the thousands ) immediately after the promotion. It’s difficult to know exactly where everything traded because I don’t have visibility into all Japanese secondary market platforms or what local card shops were charging at the time. But here is what I was able to find.

There were BGS Black Label copies clearing the market for more than $5,000, which is pretty crazy for a card that would eventually have more than 250,000 PSA 10s. Those sales appear to have been fairly rare. Looking at the broader historical price data, PSA 10 copies seem to have topped out around $300.

As more cards moved through grading, the population exploded causing prices to fall substantially. You can see from the graph above, by July 2026 recent PSA 10 sales where landing around $80-$100, while PSA 9 sales were around $40-$50. Whats interesting is that even with nearly 283,000 PSA 10 copies, it continues to sell for close to $100. That reflects the strength of demand for Pikachu promotional cards, the appeal of the artwork, and the memorable story surrounding the event.

What You Can Learn From It

1. Just because a promotional card sells out, it doesn’t mean it’s rare

   The Pikachu promotion sold out because the demand exceeded the inventory available at individual McDonald’s locations. That tells us something important: the card had extremely strong demand. I always try to verify sufficient demand before I invest in a card. What it doesn’t tell us is how many cards were ultimately printed. A card can sell out and still have hundreds of thousands or even millions of copies in circulation.

2. Guaranteed cards can produce enormous populations

   With modern Pokemon sets, the rarest chase cards can be extraordinarily difficult to pull. It’s not uncommon for Special Illustration Rares (or similar rare cards) to have pull rates approaching 1 in 1,000 packs or worse. For example, estimates for the Tree Pikachu from Ascended Heroes put the pull rate at roughly 1 in 1,533 packs. That puts a cap on how many copies can enter the marketplace. Even if millions of packs are opened, only a small percentage will contain the chase card. The McDonalds Pikachu has the opposite distribution model.

3. The Gem Rate Matters

   The number of raw copies is only part of the supply equation. For many modern cards, a significant portion of the premium collector market is concentrated in Gem Mint copies. That means the percentage of cards capable of receiving a PSA 10 can have a major effect on the supply that matters most at the high end of the market. If a card has centering problems, print defects, edge wear, poor cutting, or other manufacturing issues (which can be common), a low gem rate can create an additional layer of scarcity even when the raw card itself is relatively common. The McDonald’s Pikachu had no such problem.

   Of the copies submitted to PSA, approximately 87.5% have received a GEM MINT 10. That is an extraordinarily high gem rate, and when you combine it with the massive number of raw copies entering the grading pipeline, the PSA 10 population explodes.

   To drive the point home, here are the two supply variables that you really care about:

   • How many raw copies exist

   • What percentage of those copies can achieve a Gem Mint grade

   A card with a huge raw population can still have relatively few PSA 10s if the gem rate is low. The McDonald’s Pikachu had both a huge raw supply and an extremely high gem rate. That is the worst possible combination if you are looking for price appreciation.

4. A high population count doesn’t automatically make the card worthless

   You would think with a population count of PSA 10’s nearing 300,000, the card would basically be worthless. But its not. It still sells for almost $100. Since grading is currently at $80/card, I tried to win one for less than $80 in an auction (basically getting the card for free) but was unsuccessful. Most of the listings I bid on went for over $100. My guess is because it’s now attached to a memorable event. It’s promotion created lines, sellouts, resale controversy, pictures of wasted food, and the largest grading waves the hobby has even seen. That makes the card culturally interesting and collectible.

Final Thoughts

Do I think this card is a good investment for price appreciation ? Probably not.

Will I end up adding it to my personal collection? Unfortunately, yes.

There is most likely a cap on how much appreciation this card can experience, just from the sheer number of graded copies. And there is no rush to get one. With a population of that size, there will always be copies available on the secondary markets.. But if you are in it for the love of the game like me, you’ll end up buying a copy simply because it’s a Japanese Pikachu promo with an interesting story behind it. I suspect many collectors will feel the same.

Take notice those there are two different decisions. As a Pokemon enthusiast, I’ll happily pay $100 that was part of a cultural event. Thats was a personal collection is for. But the ZeroToHero portfolio exists to make money. A card with 283,000 PSA 10s and a fully diluted supply already priced in doesn’t get a spot. If it does surprise to the upside, I’ll take that into account when deciding how to invest in similar collaborations in the future.

If there is one lesson I want to emphasize from this situation it’s this: Don’t rush to buy a raw or graded PSA 10 of a popular card until you have some visibility into the number of copies and gem mint rate. Those two numbers make it possible to calculate some basic replacement costs. That replacement cost helps you put an economic floor under the price.

TCGIndex’s Pokémon Market Value Index currently stands at $970,348, with the cards it tracks gaining 2.46% over the past 30 days and 9.79% over the past 90 days. The index currently includes 32,146 cards.

For comparison, the S&P 500 was basically flat for the month (+0.09%), although it remains up 9.20% on a total-return basis for the year. Pokémon cards continued moving higher during a month when U.S. equities were essentially flat.

Key Highlights

The market continues to move higher, but the pace has slowed from what we saw earlier in the year. That is not necessarily a bad thing.

A slower advance supported by more than half the cards in the index is healthier than a vertical move driven by a handful of speculative chase cards. The market is still constructive, but it is no longer a situation where you can buy almost anything and expect an immediate return. The easy money has largely been made. Card selection and entry price matter more now.

PSA Grading Pause

At the beginning of June PSA ceased accepting new submissions in all lower cost tiers: Bulk, Value, Value Plus and Value Max. They made this decision after a backlog that grew to 10 million cards. Existing orders are still being processed, but PSA has tied the return of “value” tiers to a meaningful reduction of the backlog rather than committing to a firm reopening date. PSA being forced to pause lower-cost submissions is one of the clearest signs that the Pokémon market may be getting overheated. While it doesn’t guarantee a market downturn, a similar backlog developed near the peak of the previous cycle. With that in mind, I want to revisit what happened then and what it could mean in 2026.

What happened during the previous pause

On March 30,2021, PSA suspended Value, Regular, and Express submissions after it had received more cards in three days than it had in the previous three months. They intended on restoring all service levels by the July of 2021, but that timeline proved far too optimistic. Value submissions did not return until June 2022, 14 months after they were paused. The shutdown arrived near the peak of the pandemic-era card boom. That doesn’t mean the PSA decision caused the crash, but it was evidence how speculative the TCG market had become.

Prices weakened over the following months. Without the ability to quickly grade and flip, many speculators lost interest and moved elsewhere. It also created a delayed supply problem. As turnaround times stretched, fewer graded cards were reaching the market. This created the impression some cards were scarcer than they actually were temporarily pushing prices higher. Once the backlog began to clear, millions of delayed submissions returned to sellers and added significant supply to an already cooling market. This put downward pressure on prices, especially modern cards. The market eventually recovered, but anyone who bought expensive cards near the peak had to hold them for years or sell at a loss.

Could the Market Correct Again?

The same thing could happen again, yes. PSA initially estimated that it could reduce the backlog to its reopening target within four months, but that timeline has already been extended and the backlog is moving in the wrong direction. PSA has significantly more grading capacity than it did in 2021, so another 14 month closure isn’t inevitable. Still, investors should not assume “temporary” means brief.

In the short term, the pause may cause a temporary increase in PSA 10 prices by restricting the flow of newly graded cards. The longer term risk is that the backlog eventually returns to the market as a large wave of pent-up supply. I am not predicting another crash, but I am becoming much more selective about what I buy and I am avoiding modern cards whose prices depend on a temporary shortage today lasting indefinitely.

What I’m Seeing

1. Japanese Promos

Several of the strongest Japanese Promos appear to be plateauing after an enormous run-up.

Mario Pikachu and Scream Pikachu have both flattened near recent highs, while Detective Pikachu pulled back a slightly from it’s peak and has stabilized. It doesn’t necessarily mean the category is entering a decline, but it does suggest the easy upside may already be behind many of these cards for now.

I still love Japanese promo cards, especially ones that contain Pikachu, but many high-end promos have had a 10x type move. I would be cautious about chasing high dollar cards in this category from here and would wait for a meaningful pullback or look for promos that have not repriced like this. However, it is a good illustration of the type of returns possible by owning the right cards.

2. Demand for New Products Remains Strong

Demand for new sealed product is still running hot. The First Partner Promo releases sold out quickly, with lines out the door at Target. And I was twice unable to buy 30th Celebration products from Pokémon Center after waiting in the queue for hours. That level of demand is clearly still bullish. Although it increases the risk of overpaying once they reach the secondary market.

3. PSA 10 Supply will Start to Look Tighter than it Really is

The Value-tier pause will assuredly support current prices for some time. But much of the missing supply is delayed ( rather than eliminated ) and will hit the market at some point in the future.

My Read on the Market

My view has not changed substantially. The market remains healthy, but it is no longer cheap enough to justify buying indiscriminately. I’m still comfortable buying cards with strong collector demand and limited replacement supply, especially where I can acquire them below the combined cost of pulling and grading them. I’m seeing Special Illustration Rares trade below the current cost to grade ($80) across the market, and I plan to take advantage of those opportunities. At the same time, I’m avoiding popular cards that have had massive run-ups. Buyers are increasingly chasing performance, and I have no interest being the last one left holding the bag on a $10,000-$30,000 card.

Zero To Hero Portfolio

Read more

Read more

The biggest Pokémon TCG story this week was the reveal of all 76 main-set cards from Storm Emeralda, Japan’s next expansion. The set releases July 31, is led by Mega Rayquaza ex and is expected to feed into the English Delta Reign set in November.

The most unusual cards are three new paired Stadiums: Legendary Ocean Trench, Legendary Summit and Legendary Lava Lake. Stadiums are Trainer cards that remain in play and affect both players until another Stadium replaces them.

Each of these Stadiums is divided across two separate cards. You must have both halves in your hand and play them together, at which point they function as one Stadium. Placed side by side, the artwork connects to form one large landscape scene.

This is the first time Pokémon has used the two-card mechanic for Stadiums. I am not sure what collector demand will look like for these, particularly since grading and displaying the complete artwork presents an obvious challenge. I will get into that when I review the full set.

For now, I am waiting to see the complete secret-rare lineup, particularly Mega Rayquaza. That card will probably determine the ceiling for the entire set.

Quick Hits

Products & Releases

Pokémon showcased the full Pitch Black product lineup. My view has not changed. This looks more like a set where I let other people open the packs and buy the best singles.

The three most valuable raw cards at launch, in order, are:

1. Mega Darkrai ex (#116/84)

2. Mega Darkrai ex - Gold (#120/84)

3. Morpeko ex (#117/84)

There is no reason to chase these now while supply is still entering the market.

Market & Distribution

Japan’s official Pokémon Card Stores will begin using facial recognition. The system is intended to stop customers from entering multiple times or obtaining more than one purchase ticket.

This is not a direct investing signal, but it shows how difficult retail distribution remains in Japan. Pokémon is moving beyond purchase limits and lotteries to technology specifically designed to stop repeat buyers and scalpers. If it works, it may reduce some of the immediate resale premium created by organized buyers. It does not mean more product is being printed.

This is why I don’t like business models that depend on buying products at retail and immediately flipping them for a profit. As we discussed in the First Partner promo review, retailers will keep finding new ways to restrict that behavior.

Card Watch

Growlithe and Groudon received Illustration Rares in Storm Emeralda. Growlithe is a popular Pokémon that does not receive as many major illustration cards as some comparable characters. I expect the card to have steady collector demand.

Groudon has the higher ceiling. I’ll be comparing its early pricing with the Japanese and English versions of the Raging Surf and Paradox Rift Groudon Illustration Rare. The main thing I’m waiting for is the Mega Rayquaza chase card. The Rayquaza VMAX from Evolving Skies is still one of the best returns on investment I’ve ever had on a single card.

Watching Next Week

The remaining Storm Emeralda secret rares - I’ll be interested to see the Mega Rayquaza rare. It’s a popular character and assuming the artwork is good, generally makes an excellent investment candidate.

The Japanese launch on July 31 - I will be watching booster-box pricing, pull rates and the first real sales of the top cards.

The second week of Pitch Black pricing - The question is not which cards started highest. It is which cards continue finding buyers as more supply reaches the market and prices start to solidify.

Coming Soon

Planning for the complete 30th Celebration buying guide - Every product, cost-per-pack comparisons and which promos may justify paying up for.

Market Timing For Buying Graded Cards - With grading paused, I’ll explain my framework for buying already graded cards (hint: it’s not the first copies to hit the market).

A Mega Evolution set and buying review - The top cards, price charts and whether we are at reasonable entry points.

The Wild Story of the 2025 McDonald’s Pikachu Promo - Pokémon is teasing another McDonald’s promo in 2026, so I went back and researched what happened with the 2025 release. If this year is anything like last year, it could get wild.

That’s the week. Even with PSA’s grading pause, I’ll continue highlighting graded cards that look undervalued or attractive as long-term holds. New buy alerts and a Zero to Hero portfolio update are coming soon for paid subscribers.

What happened

First, a housekeeping note: yes, this news is almost eight weeks old, and yes, I’m just now covering it. I didn’t have a PSA submission go out in June, so the pause never crossed my screen until I went to check current tier pricing when prepping the first partner promos for grading.

On May 28, PSA announced that it was pausing all four Value service tiers: Value Bulk, Value, Value Plus, and Value Max effective June 2 at 3:00 p.m. PT. PSA said the surge followed its May 14 announcement of a $200 million infrastructure investment and revised turnaround-time ranges. Submissions jumped approximately 20%, adding another 1.6 million cards and pushing its active backlog toward 10 million.

Then it got worse. The pause announcement sparked a last-minute rush to beat the deadline, pushing the active queue to nearly 14 million cards by June 9. PSA reported that the backlog had fallen to approximately 12 million by June 30 and 11 million as of its July 14 update.

PSA’s stated target is to reduce the backlog to roughly 5 million cards before responsibly reopening the paused tiers. Its original estimate was up to four months, but after the deadline rush, it revised that projection to five to six months. That currently points toward a late-2026 reopening, although slower-than-expected progress or another submission surge could push it into 2027.

The practical effect is that the cheapest standard tier available directly through PSA right now is Regular at $79.99 per card. That is approximately more than three times the $24.99 Value Bulk price available immediately before the pause. Express, Super Express, Walk-Through, and the higher Premium tiers remain open above it.

The higher price is not the only problem. PSA also temporarily stretched Regular’s estimated turnaround time from 25 business days to 40–50 business days. And for collectors who made the Value cutoff, the wait may be considerably longer than the posted turnaround suggests. PSA warned that deadline-rush Value and Value Bulk packages could take six to eight weeks just to be opened and entered into the grading system, before the official turnaround clock even begins.

PSA did offer one concession. Collectors Club memberships that were active on May 14 and remain active will be extended at no charge for the duration of the Value Bulk pause.

Is this a repeat of 2021?

If your first thought was, “This is COVID all over again,” you’re not wrong to see the resemblance. On March 30, 2021, PSA suspended nearly all of its lower- and mid-priced card-grading services under record submission volume. The shutdown landed at or near the peak of the pandemic-era card boom, although the exact top varied by category. Many collectors who submitted through the cheapest tiers then waited well into late 2021 or 2022 to receive their cards, by which point much of the market was already in a serious drawdown.

That does not prove that every PSA backlog marks a market top. We only have one truly comparable modern episode, and PSA now has far more grading capacity than it did in 2021. But the relationship makes structural sense. Extreme submission volume can indicate maximum participation, maximum confidence, and maximum marginal grading: people paying to slab increasingly ordinary cards because the economics still appear to work at elevated prices. So take the signal seriously. A grading backlog is partly an operational problem, but it can also be evidence that speculative activity has moved unusually far down the quality curve.

This is one reason I am being cautious with the Zero to Hero portfolio. I do not want to chase expensive cards simply because they have already gone up or because the broader market feels strong. I would rather look for rare, genuinely desirable cards selling below their practical replacement cost, the amount it would reasonably take to pull, grade, or otherwise replace the same card in the same condition.

Replacement cost is not a guaranteed price floor. In a serious downturn, cards can trade below the cost of producing them, especially if sellers need liquidity or demand disappears. But buying below replacement cost gives us a meaningful margin of safety. It makes it harder for new supply to enter profitably, reduces how much speculative premium we are paying, and limits our dependence on the broader market continuing to rise.

If the Pokémon market keeps climbing, those cards can still participate. If the market rolls over, I would rather own scarce cards purchased below replacement cost than high-dollar cards whose prices depend on peak confidence and a steady stream of buyers willing to pay even more.

What is different this time?

The main difference is operational severity. PSA says its grading capacity is now five times higher than in 2021, and this time it paused only the four Value tiers while leaving Regular and faster services open. Collectors can monitor the backlog through PSA’s public Backlog Tracker, which is updated every two weeks with the same figures reviewed by PSA management: https://www.psacard.com/info/backlog-tracker.

What I’m doing

• I’m not submitting the First Partner promos I already own at $80 per card. Paying Regular-tier prices would destroy the investment economics. There is no attractive move here other than holding the cards and waiting for the Value tiers to reopen.

• I’m not buying additional raw cards that need to be graded. With the Value tiers closed and no firm reopening date, buying raw cards would tie up capital for an unknown amount of time. In the last cycle, the backlog was not fully resolved until the market had already fallen sharply.

• I’m focusing on already-graded cards selling below replacement cost. The best opportunities will likely be rare cards where the PSA 10 price is lower than the realistic cost of acquiring raw copies, absorbing the gem-rate risk, and paying for grading.

• I may selectively use the $80 Regular tier for higher-end cards. If a card is valuable enough that an $80 grading fee still makes economic sense, I may do some “whale hunting” to keep things interesting. Those purchases will sit outside the formal investment recommendations and will be treated more as collector-driven or speculative buys.

• I’m monitoring the backlog closely. I will track its decline month over month and reassess the strategy as PSA gets closer to reopening the Value tiers.

Bottom Line

The pause does not prove that the Pokémon market is about to crash, but it is a clear sign that grading demand and speculative activity are running hot. Until the backlog improves, I’m prioritizing liquidity and margin of safety: already-graded, genuinely scarce cards purchased below replacement cost, with only selective exceptions where the $80 grading fee still makes sense.

The Lead: 30th Celebration Preorders Open

The biggest Pokémon TCG story this week was the opening of Pokémon Center preorders for 30th Celebration, the anniversary expansion Pokémon first unveiled on June 1. The set will launch worldwide on September 16, 2026, marking the first Pokémon TCG expansion scheduled for a simultaneous global release. Every card in the expansion will be foil. The set will also introduce a new rarity called Futuristic rare, with Mew ex and Mewtwo ex among the first cards revealed in that style.

The expansion will also include 30 different Pikachu cards, each illustrated by a different artist, with one Pikachu guaranteed in every booster pack. A separate 30-card Classic Collection will reprint cards from across the game’s history, including the original Base Set Charizard.

Pokémon also revealed Espeon ex and Umbreon ex artwork connected to the set’s Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections. Those products are scheduled for November 6. The artwork on these things is awesome. I expect these to be among the most sought-after promos in the entire series.

Preorders for select 30th Celebration products opened on Pokémon Center on July 15. The Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box was priced at $59.99, limited to two per customer, and the initial allocation became unavailable later that day. I tried to buy two, but they were gone by the time I made it through the queue. That is the first meaningful demand reading for 30th Celebration products, but it needs to be interpreted carefully.

The immediate takeaway is that obtaining the premium products at retail may be difficult, particularly during the first wave. The $179.99 Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections will each contain 29 standard booster packs, one three-card Classic Collection booster pack, and exclusive promo cards. Those products are likely to attract significantly more attention than the Pokémon Center ETB.

At the same time, a fast preorder sellout measures both demand and the size of the initial allocation. It does not tell us how much product Pokémon will ultimately release or how widely available later waves will be. Early scarcity should not automatically be treated as evidence of long-term scarcity.

That distinction should determine what you are willing to pay on the secondary market. I will cover every product, the cost-per-pack math, and my buying strategy in an upcoming 30th Celebration deep dive.

Quick Hits

Products & Releases

Pitch Black launches July 17. PokéBeach’s full set guide is up. Looking through the list, I don’t see many cards in this set that will be in high demand. No full arts of the franchise stars like Pikachu, Mewtwo, or Charizard. Some sets are for players and some for collectors/investors. This looks looks like a players set. Watching launch-week raw card pricing to confirm, but my starting read is: this is a set you let other people open and pick off the 1 or 2 special illustration rares worth holding.

Japanese Releases of 30th Celebration & First Partner Promos. I’ll be watching the Japanese release of the 30th Celebration set closely. In Japan, the set will be sold in traditional 20-pack booster boxes, with the official price working out to roughly $2.20 per pack. The English release will not have traditional booster boxes or individually sold packs. Instead, packs will be available only inside products such as Elite Trainer Boxes, tins and Booster Bundles. The six-pack Booster Bundle offers the lowest announced English price at $4.49 per pack. In the short term, the market prices in these price differences. But in the long term, it matters a lot less. Everyone wants the iconic cards in either Japanese or English.

Then on October 16, Japan releases its 30th Celebration Card Sets, nine boxes covering all 27 starters at once, Japan’s version of our First Partner Illustration Collections. If you hold English First Partner positions like I do, JP pricing on those boxes is a signal worth watching. I always track the same card artwork is doing in both the Japanese and English markets.

Promo Watch

McDonald’s Japan teased its next Pokémon Happy Meal promotion. McDonald’s Japan teased its next Pokémon Happy Set promotion. The company used starter Pokémon and Pikachu imagery, but it has not confirmed that trading cards will be included.

For now, I am filing this one under homework. Last year’s Japanese McDonald’s card promotion attracted overwhelming demand and ended early, but that does not guarantee that the next promotion will include cards or produce the same result.

I do not know the cross-promotional card market well enough yet to have a strong view. I will research the previous releases, their print volumes and their secondary-market performance before making any recommendations.

The 2026 Championship Series promos revealed.

Pokémon has revealed several promo cards connected to the 2026 World Championships and PokémonXP. The most limited is the annual Paradise Resort card, which will be distributed to competitors at the World Championships. PokémonXP and Worlds attendees will receive a PokémonXP-stamped Rayquaza promo.

A separate Pikachu promo will be available to participants in local Play! Pokémon Worlds Celebration tournaments held from August 21 through August 30. Tournament winners will receive a specially stamped version. Those distinctions matter. The competitor-only Paradise Resort card belongs to a much narrower distribution category than the local participation Pikachu. They should not be evaluated as though they have the same scarcity.

Watching Next Week

• Pitch Black launch (July 17) — What are buyers actually paying for the set’s Special Illustration Rares after the first weekend, and how quickly are presale prices falling?

• 30th Celebration preorder waves — I will be watching for additional Pokémon Center allocations and small restocks caused by canceled orders. Restock alerts are staying on, particularly ahead of any Pokémon Center listing for the Day and Night Ultra-Premium Collections.

• First Partner Series 3 (August 7) — Series 3 releases August 7, less than three weeks from now. Preorder behavior will provide the next demand reading for my complete 27-card set thesis. The Series 2 buy alert, including my real cost basis, is already available to paid subscribers.

That’s the week. If you want the full 30th Celebration breakdown, every product, the cost-per-pack math, and what I’m actually buying, I’m working on the deep dive now. The Series 2 buy alert with my real cost basis is already up for paid subscribers.

Read more

Read more

In 2026, Pokémon is releasing the First Partner Illustration Collection in the U.S., a promo-card product built around the starter Pokémon from across the franchise. Each box contains three illustration-style promo cards. Each series contains nine total promos to collect. Across all three series, the full English promo lineup is 27 cards.

The boxes launched at a $14.99 MSRP, meaning a nine-card series could theoretically be completed for $45 at retail if you could buy the exact three boxes you needed. That is extremely affordable compared to modern chase cards that can require hundreds or thousands of packs to pull one.

But the market is not treating these like ordinary $14.99 collection boxes. Series 1 boxes have been selling far above MSRP on the secondary market. Complete PSA 10 sets of the first nine promos have sold for extremely strong prices in early auctions. And when Series 2 released, I went to Target and saw a line out the door. That is not normal for a random promo product.

For collectors and investors, this kind of demand matters. This article breaks down what the First Partner Illustration Collection promos are, how the release works, what cards are included, and what the early market is doing.

What are the 2026 Pokémon First Partner Illustration Collection promos?

The 2026 Pokémon First Partner Illustration Collection promos are a U.S. promo-card release built around the starter Pokémon from across the Pokémon franchise. In Pokémon’s terminology, a “first partner” is the Pokémon a player chooses at the beginning of a game. Most collectors simply call them starter Pokémon.

The full English promo lineup includes 27 cards total, divided into three separate series. Each series contains nine promos. The important thing to understand is that you do NOT get all nine promos in one box. Each box gives you one regional trio.

For example, a Series 1 box can contain one of three possible trios:

• Bulbasaur, Charmander, and Squirtle

• Turtwig, Chimchar, and Piplup

• Rowlet, Litten, and Popplio

That blind regional mechanic is part of what makes the product interesting. You are not just buying a fixed promo box. You are buying a chance at one of the regional trios, and some trios clearly have more demand than others.

Here is what comes inside each English box:

That is the basic product structure: one box, one regional trio, plus two regular booster packs and a sticker sheet. From there, the real collector question is which regional trios are included in each series — because the demand is not evenly distributed across all starters.

Here is how the English release breaks down by series.

Series 1

Series 1 contains the following promo cards: Bulbasaur, Charmander, Squirtle, Turtwig, Chimchar, Piplup, Rowlet, Litten, and Popplio.

The basic math is: 3 regions × 3 cards = 9 cards total

Charmander, Bulbasaur, and Squirtle are carrying most of the raw-card demand for Series 1. The non-Kanto cards still matter for set completion, but they do not have the same demand profile.

Series 2

Series 2 was just released and includes the Johto, Unova, and Galar starters. The promo cards are as follows: Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Totodile, Snivy, Tepig, Oshawott, Grookey, Scorbunny, & Sobble.

Series 2 has not been on the market as long as Series 1, but the early pricing is already showing a familiar pattern. I bought a couple of boxes for around $50 on the secondary market. You can’t find any selling for the MSRP.

Series 3

Series 3 contains the remaining three starter regions:

• Hoenn

• Kalos

• Paldea

PokéBeach first reported those regions in May, then later reported that all 27 starter promos had been revealed, including the previously unseen Hoenn, Kalos, and Paldea cards. Series 3 is important because it completes the 27-card English set.

Hoenn will probably be the most in demand trio. Treecko, Torchic, and Mudkip have a stronger nostalgia profile than most modern starter trios, and I would not assume Series 3 will be weak just because it is the final wave.

Release schedule

Pokémon is releasing these promos in stages rather than all at once.

The English release schedule is as follows. By the end of the rollout, collectors will have a full 27-card First Partner Illustration Collection to chase.

The First Partner Illustration Collection is not English-only. Japan has its own version called the 30th Celebration Card Sets, scheduled for October 16, 2026, at 1,200 yen per box. The Japanese product is structured differently: each box contains three starter promos from the same generation, two 30th Celebration booster packs, and a paper display stand.

There is also a Simplified Chinese version in the market, which should be treated separately from English and Japanese for pricing. Do not blend comps across languages unless you are explicitly analyzing language arbitrage. English, Japanese, and Simplified Chinese may all have collector demand, but they are different markets with different supply, distribution, pricing, and buyer behavior. This article is strictly focused on the English promos.

What are the boxes selling for?

As of late June 2026, Series 1 is no longer trading like a normal $14.99 retail product. Secondary-market pricing is roughly in the $65–$80 range, with TCGplayer showing a market price in the mid-$70s and recent sales around that same level.

Series 2 has now released. Early post-release pricing appears to be settling lower than the earlier preorder spike, with boxes generally trading around the mid-$50s to mid-$60s. That is still roughly 4x retail, which tells you the demand is real even after the product has started hitting stores.

Series 3 has not released yet, so any pricing before real distribution is mostly speculative.

The important point is that buyers are not valuing these like ordinary $14.99 collection boxes. They are valuing them like premium promo collectibles with real secondary-market demand.

Series 1 & 2 raw card pricing snapshot

Series 1 has the cleanest market data so far because it has been live the longest. Series 2 is newer, but it is already showing a similar pattern: the most popular starter trio in each wave is carrying the raw-card market. Approximate raw prices as of late June 2026:

Series 1 Raw Prices

Below are the nine Series 1 First Partner Illustration Collection promos. The cards are grouped by region: Kanto on the top row, Sinnoh in the middle row, and Alola on the bottom row.

Here is the approximate raw price for each card as of June 26, 2026. The raw market is doing exactly what you would expect. Kanto is the most in demand. Charmander, Bulbasaur, and Squirtle are carrying the set. The non-Kanto starters are much cheaper raw, even when the artwork is strong.

Series 2

Below are the nine Series 2 First Partner Illustration Collection promos. The cards are grouped by region: Johto on the top row, Unova in the middle row, and Galar on the bottom row.

Here is the approximate raw price for each card as of June 26th, 2026. Series 2 has not been on the market as long as Series 1, but the early pricing is already showing a familiar pattern. The Johto starters are carrying the wave, with Totodile, Chikorita, and Cyndaquil leading raw demand. The Unova and Galar cards are still moving, but at much lower prices.

Based on current individual raw prices, a full raw Series 1 set is roughly a $165–$180 card set. That is already far above the clean MSRP math of three $14.99 boxes, but it lines up reasonably well with the current sealed-box market. If Series 1 boxes are selling around $65–$80 each, then three sealed boxes are roughly $195–$240 before tax and shipping. At that point, paying around $165–$180 for the complete raw set is not irrational. You are paying less than the implied cost of buying sealed boxes on the secondary market, and you are removing the risk of not ending up with the exact cards you need.

Series 2 looks similar, but with slightly different math. Based on current individual prices, the full raw Series 2 set is roughly a $190–$225 card set. Series 2 boxes are currently trading closer to $55–$65 each, which puts three boxes at about $165–$195 on the secondary market. That makes the raw set pricing a little more aggressive than Series 1, but not crazy given how new the release is and how strong the Johto demand appears to be.

The bigger point is that the raw sets are not trading off MSRP anymore. They are trading off secondary-market replacement cost. Once the boxes move from $14.99 retail products to $50, $60, or $70 secondary-market products, the raw cards have a new pricing floor. Collectors are no longer comparing a complete raw set to MSRP. They are comparing it to the cost, hassle, and availability of acquiring enough sealed product to complete the set.

Bottom line

The First Partner Illustration Collection promos are real collector-interest products, not random throwaway promos. The combination of starter Pokémon, anniversary timing, illustration-style art, blind regional packs, and set-building demand gives them a credible market setup.

At MSRP, the boxes were obvious buys. But MSRP is mostly theoretical now. The product sold quickly, many stores limited purchases, and the secondary market has already moved. That does not mean every box, raw card, or PSA 10 is automatically attractive. It means the product deserves serious attention.

The next question is not just what these promos are. The better question is how to approach them: sealed, raw, graded, or as a complete PSA 10 set. That is where the investment math starts.

In Part 2, for paid subscribers, I break down how I’m thinking about the actual investment setup: sealed boxes versus raw singles, raw-to-PSA 10 grading economics, population-growth risk, and why my preferred strategy is building toward a complete PSA 10 set.

BUY ALERT: 4 English Special Illustration Rares

Status: Buying Now

Conviction Level: High

Target Exit: 12–24 Months

• The Asset: Rotom Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 126/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $102.84

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 3,606 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.62%

• Replacement Cost: $575

• The Asset: Mega Sharpedo Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 127/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $116.50

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 5,530 | Gem Mint Rate: 63.20%

• Replacement Cost: $569

• The Asset: Mega Lopunny Ex | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 128/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $98.51

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,005 | Gem Mint Rate: 62.97%

• Replacement Cost: $572

• The Asset: Dawn (Trainer) | 2025 Mega Evolutions - Phantasmal Flames

• Card #: 129/094 | Rarity: Special Illustration Rare

• Entry Price (PSA 10): $135.30

• Current PSA 10 Pop: 4,302 | Gem Mint Rate: 51.52%

• Replacement Cost: $699

Background

These purchases are Special Illustration Rares distributed as part of the Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames expansion, a retail product released on November 14, 2025. The set includes one Mega Hyper Rare Gold Card (Mega Charizard) and five Special Illustration Rares : Mega Charizard X ex (125/094), Rotom ex (126/094), Mega Sharpedo ex (127/094), Mega Lopunny ex (128/094), and Dawn Trainer (129/094)

• Set Contents: This product features 13 Illustration Rares, 16 Ultra Rares, 5 Special Illustration Rares, and One Mega Hyper Rare. The only investable cards from this set are the Meowth Illustration Rare (Card #106), the Special Illustration Rares, and the Mega Hyper Rare Charizard (Card #130). You can basically ignore everything else from a money-making perspective.

• Limited Supply: The pull rates for Special Illustration Rares in this set are 1 in 80 packs. This isn’t bad compared to some of the more difficult sets where the chase cards can run close to 1 in 1,000 packs. Nevertheless, it still means that it would cost approximately $360 worth of packs before you could pull one of the Special Illustration Rares. And given the PSA 10 rate is only 60%, you likely need to pull at least 2 before you have a PSA 10 candidate.

The Thesis (Why I’m Buying)

1. The PSA 10 Prices Are Too Low Relative to Replacement Costs

Based on the pull-rate math, the estimated cost to pull any SIR from Phantasmal Flames is roughly $360 using a $4.50 booster-pack assumption. Then you still have to grade the card. After adjusting for PSA 10 gem rates, the estimated gross PSA 10 replacement costs are:

• Rotom ex: ~$576

• Mega Sharpedo ex: ~$572

• Mega Lopunny ex: ~$572

• Dawn: ~$700

The current PSA 10 prices are nowhere close to those numbers. Most are trading around $100–$135. Replacement cost is not a hard floor, but it matters. It tells me that new PSA 10 supply is expensive to create. When the market lets me buy finished PSA 10s for a fraction of that cost, I pay attention.

2. The Market Is Barely Charging for the Cards Themselves

The raw cards are already worth roughly $20–$30 each. The lowest realistic grading costs are roughly $20–$40, and after shipping, supplies, fees, and friction, I’m using about $30 as a practical average. So if I’m buying PSA 10s around $100, the market is barely charging me for the card itself.

Roughly speaking:

• raw card value: $20–$30

• grading/friction cost: ~$30

• PSA 10 market price: ~$100

That leaves only about $40–$50 of premium for already having the card in a PSA 10 holder. For a modern Special Illustration Rare from a major set, that feels too cheap.

3. I Get To Skip The Grading Risk

If I bought these raw, I would still need to inspect condition, submit to PSA, pay grading costs, wait for the cards to come back, and absorb any PSA 9s. That process takes time, especially in a hot market, and the extra fees can add up quickly.

Instead, I’m buying the finished PSA 10s directly. At these prices, I do not need to take the grading risk. The PSA 10 premium is low enough that I would rather own the slab now than try to create it myself.

4. This Is the Type of Setup I Like

These are not hype buys. They are cheap, rare, graded modern cards where the market price looks disconnected from the production math.

The cards are:

• Special Illustration Rares

• from a major Mega Evolution-era set

• already graded PSA 10

• priced around $100

• trading far below gross replacement cost

• overlooked because Charizard is absorbing most of the attention

From years of buying and selling cards, this is the type of setup I want to own. Rare cards can stay cheap for a while, especially during the early supply flood. But years later, the market usually cares that they were hard to pull, hard to grade, and cheap when everyone was focused elsewhere.

The Market Data

• Rotom ex #126/094

  • Entry Price: $102.84 | Buy Range: under $115 | Raw Market Price: ~$19–$20

  • PSA 10 Pop: 3,721 | Gem Rate: 62.62%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$575

• Mega Sharpedo ex #127

  • Entry Price: $116.50 | Buy Range: under $125 | Raw Market Price: ~$24–$25

  • PSA 10 Pop: 5,574 | Gem Rate: 63.20%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$569

• Mega Lopunny ex #128

  • Entry Price: $98.51 | Buy Range: under $120 | Raw Market Price: ~$20–$21

  • PSA 10 Pop: 4,127 | Gem Rate: 62.97%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$572

• Dawn #129

  • Entry Price: $135.30 | Buy Range: under $145 | Raw Market Price: ~$25–$29

  • PSA 10 Pop: 4,431 | Gem Rate: 51.52%

  • Gross PSA 10 Replacement Cost: ~$699

Execution Instructions

• Where to Buy: Prioritize reputable marketplaces and sellers: verified eBay sellers, TCGPlayer sellers with strong feedback, PWCC, Goldin, Alt, Collectors, or established card shops with clear return policies.

• Verify the PSA Cert: Before buying, look up the PSA certification number on PSA’s website. Confirm that the card name, grade, language, set, and certification details match the listing. Check the PSA cert image, if available, and make sure it matches the actual card being sold—same card, same label, same cert number, and no obvious image mismatch.

• Check The Eye Appeal: PSA 10 is a baseline, inspect for centering, sharp corners, clean edges, and overall presentation. Aim for strong centering, ideally close to 50/50. Pass on off-center copies, weak eye appeal, or cards that technically grade PSA 10 but would look mediocre in a premium resale set.

• Buying Tip: Confirm you are buying the English version, not the Japanese version. Most chase cards are released in both Japanese and English sets, but values can differ widely. If a price seems too low or too high, it is most likely the wrong version.

Final Thoughts

The buy range outlined above is where I like these cards. Above those levels, I would be more selective. I would stop buying if the PSA 10 prices move materially higher before the market gives me a better reason to pay up.

The whole thesis depends on buying these while they are still cheap relative to raw value, grading cost, and gross replacement cost. At current prices, I like the asymmetry. The downside looks limited because the PSA 10s are already close to raw-card value plus grading cost. The upside is meaningful if the market eventually reprices these as scarce, graded SIRs from an important modern set.

The TCG market is so hot right now that finding cards at a reasonable price is getting tougher, but I pulled the trigger on these for the portfolio.